Best evidence of REAL change in the wave is in actual voter behavior. If Democrats stop posting gains in special elections over time, they should worry more. Of course, they haven’t (yet?). These claims are almost all based on declining D margin in the generic ballot, which...
Apr 25, 2018 • 32 tweets • 18 min read
There are TWELVE special elections tonight! One high profile election in #AZ08, a Trump +21 congressional district, and eleven (11!) in New York, where two R seats are competitive possible flips.
Coverage to follow here. <THREAD>
With results being dumped in for #NYSpecialElections, we have our first calls of the night… 3 holds for the Democrats.
NY #SD32: D hold (Clinton +88)
NY #HD74: D hold (Clinton +74)
NY #HD80: D hold (Clinton +66)
Mar 14, 2018 • 52 tweets • 17 min read
27% in now. Unclear if Lamb can pull this off. He’s running out of votes in Allegheny
Not sure if anyone else is seeing this or my data is messed up, but pretty interesting nugget — seems like Clinton precincts are voting a little worse for Lamb than her, but turning out much more. R precincts going more for Saccone than Trump, but voting far less.
Before 8PM rolls around, I want to cover what the data say to expect in this contest. This thread will start off running through my predictions, will cover how I’m projecting the race, and will turn into a live blog with graphics when the votes start to come in.
Feb 19, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.
Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.
One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
Feb 19, 2018 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming