Thread by @EHSANI22

There has been increased chatter both inside Opp circles and in Damascus about the possibility of an imminent strike by the U.S on #Syria. It seems that this chatter has been building on the back of private and even public warnings by Russian officials ==>

2-Rather curiously, such expectations of a U.S strike seem more pronounced in “Syrian” circles than in Washington or in US chatter. At first glance, it appears that if a strike were to occur it would be in retaliation to the Syrian Army move in #Ghouta . But this is unlikely =>

3-While Washington May indeed be unhappy about the #Ghouta military operations and now that civilians are leaving, it would make a Ghouta-related US military strike rather unlikely. Instead of Ghouta, any rationale for US strike has to come from those dreaded “Iranian Corridors”

4-When it comes to Iran, it has been interesting to observe the negative correlation between actions on the ground and the actual chatter both in the media and by officials. As Iran’s presence has been subsiding, the fervor and near panic about Iran’s role in Syria has increased

5-If Iran was indeed going to be allowed to establish military bases, ports or missile factories as claimed, one ought to have been seeing the “Trend” of Iranian presence in Syria on a steep upward trajectory as Tehran steadily moves forward to achieve such goals. This is not so

6-Seen as a “Trend”, peak of Iran’s presence is now behind us and is not now or ahead of us. One can perhaps point to this peak during the Aleppo military operations. Since then, any “empirical, objective & facts-based” analysis confirms the trend’s downward & not upward slope

7-When it comes to Iran’s role in Syria, the passion and panic that this subject generates can’t be dismissed with only discussing or pointing to the “current facts on the ground”. Israel (& US officials) seem convinced that what is important is “Iranian Intent & future plans”

8-When it comes to Iran’s “intent”, it is argued that the Syrian Leadership is simply too weak to push back and prevent Iran from building a Tehran/Beirut land corridor and a footprint on the Golan that would effectively turn Syria into another Hizbollah-led Lebanon

9-This explains why most Western observers of Syria depict a Syrian Leadership with no independent decision making capability. If Iran wants to move forces to the Golan, it can. If it wanted to build a military base, port or missile factory, it can. Assad in effect has no say

10-In truth and after a near-death experience, the last thing that the Syrian Leadership wants now is to give either Israel or the U.S the excuse to start a war on Syria. By extension, Damascus has to ensure that while Iran is an ally, it does not gain a footprint in the country

11-This is why the recent incident involving a downed drone by Israel is important. Officials continue to insist it was an Iranian drone. Either Damascus knew of this ahead of time which is a problem or that Damascus didn’t know which is also a problem claim Israeli officials

12-The drone incident has been used by the anti-Iran camp as a confirmation that the Syrian Leadership have indeed already lost any resemblance of sovereignty or independence from Tehran. For their part, Syrian officials continue to insist that the drone was Syrian & not Iranian

13-Back to the imminent US Strike Chatter - Were such a strike to occur, it is likely to be near the Syria/Iraq border and not on Damascus. The rationale of the strike would be to deter the formation of any or more land corridors operated by Iranian groups in that border area

14-What is curious is that this area is currently occupied by Syrian & not Iranian units. Should US Strike take place, it will give Iranian-supported units the excuse to move into this area. Speaking of law of unintended consequences that many in Syria have suffered from lately