What is most interesting about this piece by Dr Graham Gudgin on @BrexitCentral is how virtually identical it is to every other pro-Brexit piece on the Irish border.
Here's a brief thread noting some of these common features.
The border as battleground:
"The Irish border thus remains the key battleground in the war of attrition that is the UK-EU Brexit talks."
This has the effect of asserting that if UK moves on red lines here it loses the Brexit war.
Thus raising the stakes & raising tensions.
2/
It blames the change of Taoiseach from Kenny to Varadkar for "hard stance from the Irish govt that has soured UK-Irish relations".
It sees Irish intentions as barely disguised irredentism.
Yet lays all responsibility for progress on Irish govt accepting "practical solutions".
3/
It claims technology holds the solution.
It lauds Karlsson's Smart Border 2.0 report.
It says EU's "dismissal of technological options is being used for wider political purposes."
It assumes a hard border is determined by whether there is physical infrastructure at the border.
4/
It places a lot of faith in customs "intelligence".
It appears not to be overly familiar with customs procedures.
Nor with the systems that already exist. E.g. Says inspections of animal products coming into NI from GB could be used as a "fallback", but this already happens.
5/
It claims the UK Union is under threat.
It describes Protocol in draft Withdrawal Agmt as "an EU proposal to annex NI... to ease NI into a semi-detached status within the UK".
It thus explicitly makes #brexit#border a Unionist versus Irish Nationalist conflict.
(why?)
6/
This, then, isn't a negotiation but a zero-sum faceoff:
"We are now in a situation of irresistible forces & immovable objects. One side will have to back down & this clearly cannot be the UK, wh has the firmest of red lines"
But Winner Takes All = anathema to post-1998 Agmt NI
7/
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Getting the feeling that there's too much #brexit#backstop bravado and too little sense?
Howsabout a 4 slide summary from @DPhinnemore & me setting out what we can be pretty sure of and what the UK/EU (dis)agree on - as viewed from Northern Ireland.
1/5
1st: a lack of progress on the Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agmt.
All these colours have to turn green (i.e. agreed in principle & text) before we get that Deal for exit day next March.
Note that red circle - backstop is intended to be trumped at some point. 2/5
2nd: a summary of what is agreed on and what is still missing re: @BorderIrish and NI.
Note the extent of Northern Ireland-specific arrangements.
You've seen a version of this a couple of months ago. Not much progress here since you last saw it.
A quick response to the ERG report on @BorderIrish.
First, to be welcomed:
- It has been published
- It underlines that a ‘hard’ border NI/IRL is ‘totally undesirable’
- It sees customs measures as not altering NI's constitutional position
- It makes no mention of drones. 1/
It interprets 'no hard border' specifically to mean 'no physical infrastructure at the border'.
This appears to mean no limit to checks + inspections away from the border & entailing huge administrative burdens for cross-border traders.
So ‘no hard border’ ≠ frictionless. 2/
Vision of what could be done post-Brexit rests on several assumptions:
no UK-EU tariffs; broad ‘equivalence’; continuation of privileges of EU membership (e.g. access to VIES); close bilateral cooperation with Ireland;
and unfalteringly deep UK-EU mutual trust.
3/
A bit of context-setting (plus explanation of our imaginative colour coding).
The White Paper is in part an effort by UK govt to prove a NI-specific #backstop to be unnecessary. But remember Protocol for NI/IRL in the Withdrawal Agmt is abt much more than a customs border.
2/10
A reminder of where we are up to on that Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agreement.
With added stars 🌟 to identify which bits the White Paper attempts to address (or negate) most directly.
There is a lot that is very welcome & very good to see in the UK Govt #Brexit White Paper, from the point of view of Northern Ireland, North/South cooperation & @BelfastAgmt
There is repeated mention of the UK & EU 'meeting their shared commitments to Northern Ireland & Ireland', esp. in Exec Summary.
And it states the UK wishes to see a future UK-EU partnership 'honouring the letter & the spirit of the Belfast (‘Good Friday’) Agreement'.
2/
Evidence of honouring the letter of @BelfastAgmt comes primarily in relation to areas of north/south cooperation.
The Mapping Exercise of cross-border links conducted before the Joint Report of Dec'17 appears to be bearing fruit in the form of specific areas identified here.
3/