G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
Apr 25, 2018 32 tweets 18 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
There are TWELVE special elections tonight! One high profile election in #AZ08, a Trump +21 congressional district, and eleven (11!) in New York, where two R seats are competitive possible flips.

Coverage to follow here. <THREAD>
With results being dumped in for #NYSpecialElections, we have our first calls of the night… 3 holds for the Democrats.

NY #SD32: D hold (Clinton +88)
NY #HD74: D hold (Clinton +74)
NY #HD80: D hold (Clinton +66)
Democrats also hold NY #HD39 (uncontested) which Clinton won by 66 points in 2015. They are batting 4/11 tonight.
Looks like the shift in NY special elections so far this evening is about 6%. Since they are very blue seats, this is consistent with the idea that the swing in 2018 will come more from R-leaning seats than D-leaning ones.

Democratic candidate looking strong in #SD37, which Clinton won by 21 points in 2016 and Obama won by 9
A reminder than tonight’s results wont’t change expectations for a November Dem Wave (margins of error, probably, just 58% odds, etc) unless the Democrats swing by an average of 25 or 2 points (neither of which look likely). Play the long game, folks. #AZ08 #NYSpecialElections
Turnout looking moderate to high, for a special election, in #NYSpecialElections tonight. (Note for future democracies: it’s sad that we consider 20% turnout good.)
#Projection: Unless there is a warehouse of uncounted votes, Democrats will hold on to NY #SD37 seat, likely by double digits. Clinton won here by 21 points in 2016, Obama by 9. This is their 5th hold of the night. 6 more elections in NY remaining
Just in: the first votes in NY #HD142. This seat is D-held, but Trump won it by 7 in 2016 (Obama by 10). With 20% reporting the Democratic candidate is up by 15 (a 22-point swing on the margin, if it holds. nyenr.elections.ny.gov
In the one R-held seat currently reporting, Democrats are on pace for a 13-point win and a #FLIP. Clinton won by 7 here in 2018. Keep your eye on #HD10
#BREAKING with 100% of the vote reporting in the special election to NY’s 10th Assembly District, Democrat Steve Stern has #FLIPPED control of the seat from R to D. #HD10

The seat swung toward Democrats by 13%, which is the average swing in special elections since 2016.
The swing toward Democrats in NY #HD10 #AD10 is slightly exceeding expectations according to previous special election results. The first of the night. Are there more to come?
15% reporting now in NY #HD107 and Democrats are looking good for a possible second #FLIP of the night. Dem. Candidate up 13 points (Trump won by 4 here).
Wow, this is unexpected. In NY #AD102 HD102, the Democratic candidate is up 3 points with 63% of votes reporting. This is an R-held seat that Trump won by 23 points.
other state lege swings tonight are kinda all over the place
In the 97 post-2016 special elections in my data, Obama's margin in the district in 2012 is almost twice as important to predictions of 2018 as Clinton's 2016 margin. Fit is surprisingly high
In the two competitive Republican-held districts left in #NYSpecialElections, here's the breakdown:

#HD102: D -2 (Trump +23, 21% swing)

#HD107: D -4 (Trump +4, 0% swing)

Still waiting on a few precincts in each.
#BREAKING in surprisingly competitive NY Assembly District 102, the Democrat has come within 1% of flipping the seat. Trump won by 23% here in 2016, making this a large 🚨23-24 point swing.🚨

#AD10 #HD10 is in the heart of Rep. John Faso's NY-19 (R+6). Bad sign for him in 2018.
RESULTS ARE NOW COMING IN for the #AZ08 special election nail-biter. State releases all the results results instantly, and based on the early ballot data, I have a 101% confident prediction:

Tipirneni (D): 0%
Lesko (R): 0%
JEB!: 100%
Want to know what to expect in the incoming #AZ08 special election? I give you a primer here: thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…
Just in: in #AZ08,

Lesko (R): 53%
Tipirneni (D): 47%

This is with roughly 3/4ths of projected votes counted.

The 21 point lead that people inferred Lesko would have based off party registration of early ballots is (surprise!) not there.
According to the currently-reported vote tally, Tipirneni needs somewhere between 55 and 60% of election day votes to win in #AZ08. thecrosstab.com/2018/04/24/az-…
#BREAKING Republican Debbie Lesko wins #AZ08 special election. Donald Trump won by 21 points in here in 2016, and as of now (will likely get better for Dems), Democrats are running a 19-point swing from the seat's partisan lean. Very bad sign for GOP.

Among the 90k Republican early ballots cast in #AZ08, only (!) 53# (!) went for Debbie Lesko. That's huge persuasion, given that partisan voting is >85% at the presidential level. If the GOP can't hold on here...

Just in: Democratic candidate in #AZ08 special election swings seat by ~15 points. Could very well be higher

The average swing in the 9 Federal special elections since 2016 is 17 points for the Democrats.

If the swing to Democrats in November is anything CLOSE to the swing we're seeing in special elections so far (17% for Congressional, 14% for state lege races), Dems will be favorites in the House (40+ seats) and maybe (just maybe) the Senate.

In other words, what we've seen in tonight's special elections is 99.9% consistent with what we've seen in special elections so far. The evidence is also consistent with a Democratic House come 2019 and possibly a Democratic Senate.
(This is especially true in an environment where Arizona has at least one Senate seat at play --- as morbid as this is to say)
Brief call to action:

If you like what I do with these special elections, consider signing up for my newsletter. I’ll soon be transitioning roles (to a real outlet!) and this will be the best way for me to share all my work.


Ok, back to #AZ08
To all who frequent my election forecasts: they do cost money to keep running. Consider becoming a subscriber of my site via Patreon to keep it all running happy (there are rewards for signing up 🙂).

Thus ends my thread on the results for tonight's special elections in #AZ08 and #NYSpecialElections:

▪️1 flip
▪️19-point swing in red AZ
▪️17-point swing average Federal special
▪️All consistent with Dems *likely* taking back the House


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More from @gelliottmorris

May 13, 2018
This is the right take (if I’m reading it correctly), but let’s talk about that article claiming the Democratic wave is receding (nymag.com/daily/intellig…). Oh boy...
Best evidence of REAL change in the wave is in actual voter behavior. If Democrats stop posting gains in special elections over time, they should worry more. Of course, they haven’t (yet?). These claims are almost all based on declining D margin in the generic ballot, which...
... is mostly an artifact of how wide you take your averages. Monthly Democratic margin in generic ballot polling has been between 7 and 9 percentage points since October of 2017. Combine with special elections, the wave looks nearly as tall as it did in March.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 14, 2018
27% in now. Unclear if Lamb can pull this off. He’s running out of votes in Allegheny
Not sure if anyone else is seeing this or my data is messed up, but pretty interesting nugget — seems like Clinton precincts are voting a little worse for Lamb than her, but turning out much more. R precincts going more for Saccone than Trump, but voting far less.
This is a story of turnout
Read 52 tweets
Mar 13, 2018
TONIGHT is the much-hyped #pa18 race between @ConorLambPA and @Saccone4PA18. Who’s going to win? Predictions and results: [THREAD]

Before 8PM rolls around, I want to cover what the data say to expect in this contest. This thread will start off running through my predictions, will cover how I’m projecting the race, and will turn into a live blog with graphics when the votes start to come in.
There are multiple ways to predict an election. Polls, geographic data, demographic data, etc are all useful. I’m going to run through what all these measurements could predict in #pa18. Spoiler: it’s a mixed bag for both Lamb and Saccone.
Read 28 tweets
Feb 19, 2018
#New PA cong. map increases D chance of winning the House majority by 4%. They only need a 6.8% generic ballot margin now (down from 7.7) to be favored.

Diff. will be closer to 10% in Nov when uncertainty from polls is ⬇️. Redraw is a very big deal.

One major reason the new PA map is such a big gain for Democrats is that it solidifies, not just tips, PA districts in Philly burbs. Also creates one additional vulnerable R district. (Easily seen in this map made by @JMilesColeman)
My forecasting model will have new PA map in the near future. This is not just a simple switch; it’s a coding redesign, restructuring of input, & drawing new geographic files. Takes a while (for me, a student).

In the meantime, just add 3-4% to the model: bit.ly/2018_house
Read 4 tweets
Feb 19, 2018
New #PA Congressional map is pretty much the best one Democrats could have hoped for. At least 2 pickups in neutral environment, likely ability to win 11 in current D+6 environment. Post coming
PA redraw creates map that is almost entirely drawn from scratch. Huge shifts from 2016 plan all over the place. Dems favored to win 9 seats there in almost any national environment.
(big swings mostly from renumbering, but aggregate differences are clear)
Read 11 tweets

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