Thread by @WSMIreland

Today we are warning that #RepealTheEighth vote can't be assumed even through No have failed to increase their vote. If the same last week shift comes into play as for Marriage Equality & Divorce we are looking at a result to close to call. To explain in detail..
#together4yes

1995 Divorce referendum looked to be in the bag from advance polls but on the day was only narrowly carried, it appears major drop in Yes happened in last 10 days. Too long ago to say more but we can say a whole lot more about Marriage Equality..

Marriage Equality also saw sharp drop in last 10 days, there were 4 polls published a weekend before by the same range of companies polling this time around - table shows each poll and then actual result first for raw data, then with Don't Knows excluded..

This table compares each companies poll with the actual result & then calculates how much of their Don't Know became No and in the two cases where that was over 100% how much of the their Yes vote became No - we presume their methods now are similar..

Using these percentages we recalculate all the polls by applying the error ratios for each company from ME to each of their 8th ref polls. IF (big IF) it was same this time around the referendum would only narrowly be carried in B&A poll and defeated in both MRBI and Red C BUT..

To be very clear this is not a prediction, simply a warning that we can't be complacent (who is!). The campaigns are very different in intensity & length and there is some evidence in B&A polling that don't knows are splitting to Yes, some illustrations..

No have ran a very intense campaigns with a huge spend on misleading ads since February but the polls show a failure to increase the No vote. All the variation below is between polling companies but polls for each company across the months show no change

But the No campaign is not focused on convincing additional voters to No but trying to make the referendum so nasty and confusing that undecided & Soft Yes voters will stay at home or, our of fear, opt for the status quo

This would explain the often bizarre nature of the No campaign, their failure to discourage aggression, lying and indeed the participation of their spokes people in such tactics. Disengagement and fear helps them, in 1983 only 54% voted

But this may not work this time as polls indicate that Yes voters are quite determined and sure of their understanding of issue, 80% of Repeal voters saying they would never change their mind in MRBI poll wsm.ie/c/poll-yes-rep…

#TogetherforYes is already canvassing areas that never had organised canvass during Marriage equality ref. Its expected that Yes canvass will substantially grow in size & scope. Canvassing is something you can do that will make a difference Sign up at join.togetherforyes.ie

#Together4Yes have already distributed three times as many Yes posters as were distributed during entire Marriage equality campaign - in general you can say T4Y learned from and then built on the ME ref experience

All the polls above were from the period before T4Y had really launched but the No campaign was in full swing since February - it may be we will see the Yes vote increase and No vote decrease in the next set of polls.

So again this scary comparison with the Marriage Equality polls in NOT a prediction but simply a warning that the strong and consistent Yes lead does not mean #Repeal is already in the bag, its very much up to YOU to be part of a #Together4Yes win

As referendum vote approaches people will pay more and more attention to whats said and written, particularly in final days. So its not too late to get involved, indeed the early starters will really appreciate new faces and new energy

A version of this is on our website wsm.ie/c/repeal-8th-w… where you will also find previous poll analysis

See thread above, adjustment of Repeal polls using errors of each of the companies doing Marriage Equality polls @Colmogorman @Together4yes @freesafelegal