Thread by @Charles_Lister

As expected, the #Assad regime - supported by #Russia & yes, #Iran-backed militias - is well into a pre-planned offensive vs. opposition-held areas in S/SW #Syria.

= Violating de-escalation zone agreement & with little/no word/response from the opposition’s foreign backers.

#pt: At least one pro-#Assad Shia militia group overtly backed by #Iran/#IRGC -- Liwa Zulfiqar -- has publicly proclaimed its ongoing role in the offensive in south #Syria.

No word or response from #Israel, as yet.

[via @hadialbahra]

@hadialbahra #pt: The U.S’s impotent role in #Syria has again been revealed for all to see & exploit…

June 21: @StateDept threatens “serious repercussions” for any offensive in the south.

June 23: @USEmbassyJordan tells FSA 'we don’t have your back' [via @AbuJamajem]

June 25-27: Silence.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem #pt: Meanwhile, pro-#Assad offensives continue to be indiscriminate affairs, with civilians the biggest likely victims.

This pilot flying over #Deraa says: “Here, the crisis began & here we’ll bury it.” [via @ZouhirAlShimale]

~ 50,000 civilians have been displaced thus far.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale #pt: Amidst the #Assad regime’s new bombing campaign in #Deraa, I can’t help but hear senior U.S. officials’ recent words to me ring in my ear:

- ‘The south is the *one* area where we have real, meaningful influence… where we can actually help determine the shape of events…’

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale In the lead-up to this latest offensive, @CrisisGroup suggested the U.S. (& others) negotiate an #Assad regime return to ruling south #Syria.

Though they didn’t say it, that'd mean direct [U.S] complicity in further mass civilian displacement, presumably north to #Idlib/#Aleppo.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup #pt: Yet again, the scope is minimalist & focused on achieving short-term wins (or preventing immediate ills), but advocating such policies only serves to exacerbate long-term challenges that threaten sustained instability.

Not just *in* #Syria, but vis-a-vis #Jordan & #Israel.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup Precisely - it has been clear for some time that #Iran would take a minimal role in directing any operation in the south, though some of its affiliated forces would likely remain in smaller numbers. Very similar to East Ghouta.

https://twitter.com/ajaltamimi/status/1011998781213208577

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup 50+ people have been killed in #Russia & #Assad regime airstrikes in #Deraa in the last 24hrs - many women & children.

Dreadful images, as Deraa, Nawa, Jassem, Bosra al-Sham, Al-Musayfira & more are targeted relentlessly.

Graphic.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup #pt: #Assad, the so-called “protector of minorities,” even made sure to bomb a Church in Sama’a yesterday, as well as the Christian community in Kharaba’a earlier today.

#Syria #Deraa

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup A note to observers of southern #Syria:

Neither #HTS nor Al-Qaeda have serious, strategic military capabilities in the south, having chosen to de-prioritize their presence there years ago.

The #ISIS-linked Jaish Khaled, meanwhile, is being left untouched by #Assad’s offensive.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup “#Putin’s Confliction Zone -
How #Russia conned #Trump in southwestern #Syria”

- Excellent editorial by @WSJopinion, highlighting the pitiful U.S. response to events in #Deraa… "Begging is embarrassing.”

wsj.com/articles/putin…

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup @WSJopinion According to @IgnatiusPost, a #Trump-#Putin deal on #Syria - in which the U.S. would effectively withdraw *all* political demands - would see #Moscow try to secure x5 things…

- x4 already exist/underway
- x1 is a fantasy long-term

#TheArtofTheDeal

washingtonpost.com/opinions/globa…

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup @WSJopinion @IgnatiusPost "Despite clear and present interests… the U.S. government remains silent—effectively abandoning Syrian, #Jordan-ian & #Israel-i allies to deal w. the consequences alone.”

My latest comments on #Assad’s offensive in southern #Syria, for @MiddleEastInst

mei.edu/content/flash/…

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup @WSJopinion @IgnatiusPost @MiddleEastInst Many people focus on U.S. weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups like #ISIS.

So - it’s worth also mentioning that due to the #Trump admin’s decision to abandon its allies in southern #Syria, U.S. weapons have now fallen to a major State Sponsor of Terrorism: #Assad.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup @WSJopinion @IgnatiusPost @MiddleEastInst 7yrs of miserably bad decision-making on #Syria has left policymakers in the U.S, #Europe, #Israel, #Saudi etc., with no choice but to cling on to the pipe dream that #Russia can/will remove #Iran from the country.

It’s a complete fantasy & it *guarantees* long-term instability.

@hadialbahra @StateDept @USEmbassyJordan @AbuJamajem @ZouhirAlShimale @CrisisGroup @WSJopinion @IgnatiusPost @MiddleEastInst The @UN now says 270,000-330,000 people have been displaced by the #Assad regime’s offensive in southern #Syria.

= Roughly 33-40% of the region’s entire population.

These IDPs have nowhere to go - neither #Jordan nor #Israel will open their borders.

It’s ~95°F daily in #Deraa.

#Iran & its militias are not leaving southern #Syria anytime soon - however hard some might try to say otherwise.

- Excellent map of #IRGC/militia network, via @ETANA_Syria

@ETANA_Syria After the breakdown of “reconciliation” talks, the #Assad regime & #Russia have massively ramped up aerial & ground-to-ground bombardment of remaining opposition-held areas of #Deraa.

Jets, helicopters, barrel bombs, rocket artillery/MRLs & ground assaults all ongoing. #Syria

@ETANA_Syria Pro-#Assad sources: #Hezbollah is helping command/coordinate the southern #Syria offensive - ridiculing the entire U.S/#Jordan/#Israel position on shifting dynamics in the south.

They're a “fundamental participant” working “under the cover” of the #SAA.

haaretz.com/middle-east-ne…

@ETANA_Syria Pro-#Assad sources are reporting that #Israel just launched strikes (unclear if air-ground or ground-ground) on regime troops near al-Baath in #Quneitra, #Syria - possibly in response to “errant” mortar fire that crossed the #Golan line.

@ETANA_Syria NEW - Multiple sources say the opposition has reached an agreement with #Russia in SW #Syria:

- Full ceasefire
- Heavy weapons surrendered
- #SAA withdraws from 4 villages
- #Nassib crossing ceded to regime/Russian military police
- Optional FSA/#Ahrar/#HTS transfer to #Idlib

#Israel just shot down a drone flying towards/into its airspace alongside #Syria/#Golan.

That’s the second Patriot SAM shoot-down of a [likely] #Assad regime/#Iran UAV in 72hrs.

And yet, I thought #Assad’s conquest of #Deraa was meant to stabilize #Syria’s south? Huh…