Thread by @m_suchkov

Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow:
1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t

2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..

3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..

4...the tactitcs he turned to immediately after downing of #Russia/n jet in 2015.Back then it didnt work since few in West felt like going to war w/ #Moscow over #Erdogan interests but it enfuriated #Putin for he thought they coulda personally worked out their differences w/ Erdo

5.#Anakra's calculus may be different now at the backdrop of visibly more pro-active #US/European allies position but it ultimately makes #Kremlin think #Erdogan didn't learn the lesson of 2015 by seeking to circumvent committments to #Russia via dealings w/ West

6. Whether it's a smart tactics or not, remains to be seen but as of now, very move #Erdogan makes weakend argument of those in #Russia who rallied for normalization w/ #Turkey back then (& still do).

7.The mistake #Moscow sees #Erdogan is doing is wanting it all at once & hoping to get it by cooptinf w/ #West instead of taking #Russia's qui pro quo - have the northern #Idlib,move loyal militants to areas adjacent to TUR border under TUR control but leave the rest to #Assad

8.Side notes-discourse on #Russia,#Turkey rels very emotive. Usually gov people tend to first publicly hail it w/ colorful adjectives ("strategic partnership",etc.) only to roll back at times of crises & say "it was never meant to be one", Peer experts, jornos often play along

9.Example Describing #Idlib as"opposition's last stronghold" has become some pledge of allegance everyone writing on the matter has to pronounce.If it is "last stronghold"what are #Turkey--controled northern Aleppo,Afrin,al-Bab,Jarablus,Azaz districts filled w/ oppst militants?

10.=>As the situation escalates,the rels growing tense but #Russia, #Turkey havent YET failed no stress tests:diplomats,mil,intel people in contact. RU wants to have an upper hand, TUR does too-normal practice. But when one runs after two hares they tend to catch neither.