Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
4...the tactitcs he turned to immediately after downing of #Russia/n jet in 2015.Back then it didnt work since few in West felt like going to war w/ #Moscow over #Erdogan interests but it enfuriated #Putin for he thought they coulda personally worked out their differences w/ Erdo
5.#Anakra's calculus may be different now at the backdrop of visibly more pro-active #US/European allies position but it ultimately makes #Kremlin think #Erdogan didn't learn the lesson of 2015 by seeking to circumvent committments to #Russia via dealings w/ West
6. Whether it's a smart tactics or not, remains to be seen but as of now, very move #Erdogan makes weakend argument of those in #Russia who rallied for normalization w/ #Turkey back then (& still do).
7.The mistake #Moscow sees #Erdogan is doing is wanting it all at once & hoping to get it by cooptinf w/ #West instead of taking #Russia's qui pro quo - have the northern #Idlib,move loyal militants to areas adjacent to TUR border under TUR control but leave the rest to #Assad
8.Side notes-discourse on #Russia,#Turkey rels very emotive. Usually gov people tend to first publicly hail it w/ colorful adjectives ("strategic partnership",etc.) only to roll back at times of crises & say "it was never meant to be one", Peer experts, jornos often play along
9.Example Describing #Idlib as"opposition's last stronghold" has become some pledge of allegance everyone writing on the matter has to pronounce.If it is "last stronghold"what are #Turkey--controled northern Aleppo,Afrin,al-Bab,Jarablus,Azaz districts filled w/ oppst militants?
10.=>As the situation escalates,the rels growing tense but #Russia, #Turkey havent YET failed no stress tests:diplomats,mil,intel people in contact. RU wants to have an upper hand, TUR does too-normal practice. But when one runs after two hares they tend to catch neither.
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..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
#Lavrov on @realDonaldTrump tweet on #Idlib: #Trump's right-we need to avoid a humanitarian crisis there. That's what we always try to do w/ humanitarian corridors & other coverups for civilians unlike Americans,say,in #Raqqa who just ironed the city. Now they want to cover Nusra
This mistake (or, again, was it intentional #fakenews frill?) set a line of reports that "#Russia reveals..." which is not the case. The info was allegedly LEAKED by two Rus diplomats to @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The proposal on #Donbass appears to have indeed been made by #Putin,the info was not supposed to be disclosed until #Trump discussed it with his team. One may not like the proposal itself, but that it's now disclosed is bad for solution of the issue,courtesy of presidential talks
Antonov adds,another group of #US lawmakers are planning to visit #Russia following a rare trip to #Moscow by Republican members of #Congress this month.The Ambassador noted, however,there was little chance of a trip by Russian lawmakers to #America before congressional elections
Antonov: Politicians in #Washington are very far from the people. What they are doing doesn't meet interests of American people.
3. #Putin & #Trump will be meet face-to-face around noon (1pm #Moscow time). The leaders have at least 3 hours scheduled for themselves after which they will proceed to another room for working lunch in a broader format with ministers and advisers.
There're types of reads that good you regret it wasnt you who authored them. To me this exclusive take for @AlMonitor by #Russia's leading foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov on a possible #Syria deal b/n #Putin & #Trump is in this category al-monitor.com/pulse/original…