Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow:
1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
4...the tactitcs he turned to immediately after downing of #Russia/n jet in 2015.Back then it didnt work since few in West felt like going to war w/ #Moscow over #Erdogan interests but it enfuriated #Putin for he thought they coulda personally worked out their differences w/ Erdo
5.#Anakra's calculus may be different now at the backdrop of visibly more pro-active #US/European allies position but it ultimately makes #Kremlin think #Erdogan didn't learn the lesson of 2015 by seeking to circumvent committments to #Russia via dealings w/ West
6. Whether it's a smart tactics or not, remains to be seen but as of now, very move #Erdogan makes weakend argument of those in #Russia who rallied for normalization w/ #Turkey back then (& still do).
7.The mistake #Moscow sees #Erdogan is doing is wanting it all at once & hoping to get it by cooptinf w/ #West instead of taking #Russia's qui pro quo - have the northern #Idlib,move loyal militants to areas adjacent to TUR border under TUR control but leave the rest to #Assad
8.Side notes-discourse on #Russia,#Turkey rels very emotive. Usually gov people tend to first publicly hail it w/ colorful adjectives ("strategic partnership",etc.) only to roll back at times of crises & say "it was never meant to be one", Peer experts, jornos often play along
9.Example Describing #Idlib as"opposition's last stronghold" has become some pledge of allegance everyone writing on the matter has to pronounce.If it is "last stronghold"what are #Turkey--controled northern Aleppo,Afrin,al-Bab,Jarablus,Azaz districts filled w/ oppst militants?
10.=>As the situation escalates,the rels growing tense but #Russia, #Turkey havent YET failed no stress tests:diplomats,mil,intel people in contact. RU wants to have an upper hand, TUR does too-normal practice. But when one runs after two hares they tend to catch neither.

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More from @m_suchkov

Sep 7, 2018
My take-away from #TehranSummit this far is #Russia, #Turkey, #Iran each, by & large, can be satisfied w/ its outcomes. #Moscow & #Tehran realized #Erdogan has bigger assets & higher stakes in #Idlib than, say, in southern #Syria where he let #Assad get the opposition, thus..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
#Lavrov on @realDonaldTrump tweet on #Idlib: #Trump's right-we need to avoid a humanitarian crisis there. That's what we always try to do w/ humanitarian corridors & other coverups for civilians unlike Americans,say,in #Raqqa who just ironed the city. Now they want to cover Nusra
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
.@washingtonpost made gross mistake (or #fakenews?) citing Amb Antonov on the referendum issue. At the @ValdaiClub talk WP referring to Antonov said "#Ukrainian issue was discussed”(not "#Donbass referendum" issue), adding"not all details shld be revealed"
wapo.st/2muzQar?tid=ss…
This mistake (or, again, was it intentional #fakenews frill?) set a line of reports that "#Russia reveals..." which is not the case. The info was allegedly LEAKED by two Rus diplomats to @business
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The proposal on #Donbass appears to have indeed been made by #Putin,the info was not supposed to be disclosed until #Trump discussed it with his team. One may not like the proposal itself, but that it's now disclosed is bad for solution of the issue,courtesy of presidential talks
Read 4 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
#Russia's Amb. to #US Anatoly Antonov speaking @ValdaiClub says #Moscow is ready to discuss #Putin's visit to #Washington
reut.rs/2NvnRoj
Antonov adds,another group of #US lawmakers are planning to visit #Russia following a rare trip to #Moscow by Republican members of #Congress this month.The Ambassador noted, however,there was little chance of a trip by Russian lawmakers to #America before congressional elections
Antonov: Politicians in #Washington are very far from the people. What they are doing doesn't meet interests of American people.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 16, 2018
This is my THREAD on #HelsinkiSummit where I'll report/analyze all coming & subsequent developements from #Russia's POV:
1. Here's my take on #Putin-#Trump encounter for @ispionline where I argue the summit may have high hopes, but modest expectations
ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…
2. This is what #Putin heads into #HelsinkiSummit with in terms of #Syria, #Iran: almon.co/32y5
3. #Putin & #Trump will be meet face-to-face around noon (1pm #Moscow time). The leaders have at least 3 hours scheduled for themselves after which they will proceed to another room for working lunch in a broader format with ministers and advisers.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 13, 2018
In a few days left before #HelsinkiSummit b/n #Putin @realDonaldTrump I'l be using this THREAD to share my own & my @AlMonitor colleagues' works and reports on what the two presidents may and may not achieve on #Syria, #Russia/#US-related developemnts b/n #Israel and #Iran, etc.
1. In our latest @AlMonitor #Russia-Mideast @lavmir brings an interesting story of recent talks b/n @netanyahu - #Putin in #Moscow
almon.co/32xg
There're types of reads that good you regret it wasnt you who authored them. To me this exclusive take for @AlMonitor by #Russia's leading foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov on a possible #Syria deal b/n #Putin & #Trump is in this category al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
Read 7 tweets

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