Russia, US, security & foreign policy | Director @mgimo_iis | Associate professor @mgimo | Ex @AlMonitor & @IEuniversity |
Sep 12, 2018 • 10 tweets • 9 min read
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
Sep 7, 2018 • 4 tweets • 6 min read
My take-away from #TehranSummit this far is #Russia, #Turkey, #Iran each, by & large, can be satisfied w/ its outcomes. #Moscow & #Tehran realized #Erdogan has bigger assets & higher stakes in #Idlib than, say, in southern #Syria where he let #Assad get the opposition, thus..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
Sep 4, 2018 • 9 tweets • 9 min read
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
Top international adviser to #Iran's SP Ali Akbar Velayati speaking @ValdaiClub now:says term #MiddleEast is British concept, he'd rather use West Asia/North Africa,argues due to #US influence some countries seek to play greater regional role (than they can)
Velayati:*throughout history external powers sought to dominate Mideast, #US no exception here, #Libya, #Somalia brought manifestations of western FP,#Trump seeks to undermine region,he wants to partition #Syria as they did w/ 🇱🇾 & #Iraq - bith once big, important states
Jul 11, 2018 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Interesting thoughts by #Russia Defense Minister Shoigu in his interview to Italy's Il Giornale days into #Putin@realDonaldTrump summit:
1."Since US lawmakers experts been calling on #US gov to clarify its #Syria strategy,our country not the only one who does not get it"
2."If there's some basis for #US actions in #Syria,it is too contradictory to be called a strategy.I'd like to recall that initially,it was about defeating #ISIS,then about preventing re-emergence of IS&now to preserve mil presence in to deter #Iran’s alleged influence"
Jul 9, 2018 • 14 tweets • 15 min read
NEW on coming #Putin@realDonaldTrump summit: (2nd THREAD) 1. In recent days #Moscow passed a two-page document to #Washington that should serve as a basis/draft for a bilateral communique the two Presidents should present after the #Helsinki talks. 2. According to #Rus sources #US accepted the paper but insisted an issue of "#Russia/n interference into American elections in 2016" is mentioned with due guarantees that this doesn't happen again.
Jul 4, 2018 • 14 tweets • 16 min read
PRESSER: #Russia's FM #Lavrov & #Jordan/ian FM Safadi: 1. Say they're satisfiedd w/ "close & useful interaction" over #Syria both in trilateral format (w/ #US in Amman) & via Astana where Jordan is observer.
Lavrov says #Rus appreciates JRD mediation b/n #SAA&opposition militants
2. #Lavrov, #Safadi discussed "some concrete measures of how to address issue of #Syria/n refugees in #Jordan."
Both reinforced need to comply w/ trilateral agreements over SW de-escalation zone,including,Lavrov stressed,"part on fight w/ #ISIS, #HTS that control 40% of the area"
#BREAKING: #Putin just hosted @AmbJohnBolton. #Russia's Defense Minister Shoigu & FM Lavrov were also both present.Putin said the fact that #US-Rus, "not in ther best form" are "result of acute domestic struggle in #America" & that "Rus never sought confrontation"
.@AmbJohnBolton reportedly said he came to discuss ways of improving bilateral rels: "Even in the past when we had seriius disagreements our leaders held meetings which was important for global stability. Prez #Trump committed to reaching this goal"
Apr 11, 2018 • 8 tweets • 9 min read
#Syria UPDATE: 1. So, it appears #Russia, #US working on de-escalation options now via a number of "middle men". RUS military stated earlier it's been in touch w/ American Joint Chief of Staff over the issue & there're Rus-#NATO communication/talks via #Turkey military.
2.#Putin spoke on the phone w/ #Netanyahu earlier today. #Russia Prez said #Syria sovereignty should be respected, urged to refrain from actions that "could further destabilize the situayion in the country." #Israel's PM stood the ground on #Iran's prwsence in SYR as unacceptable
Apr 9, 2018 • 49 tweets • 36 min read
#Russia's UN envoy Nebenzya starts speaking at UNSC meeting on #Syria, alleged #ChemicalAttacks in #Douma, promises "he'd have to say a lot and the delegates'd have to listen"
1."#UK, #France follow #US in destructive policies in SYR, use blackmail, threaten RUS,
2.Even during #ColdWar Western diplomats didn't afford such tone vis-a-vis #Russia, "You understand what you did [in #MIddleEast]?No, you don't!Will you ever stop your geopolitical experiments?Do you understand what dangerous line you are driving the world to?
Mar 31, 2018 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
SHORT THREAD: #SkripalCase & #Syria: 1.#Russia's authoritative,yet controversial #MiddleEadt expert Satanovsky known for his ties to #FSB sec service says "#UK's persecution of Russia" has to do w/ serious,underreported development in #Syria that occured shortly before #Salisbury
2.According to him,during operations in #EasternGhouta "actions by #SAA's special force unit (supported by #Russia/ns) led to a group of #UK's special forces ending up trapped in a siege,allegedly near Kafr Batna settlement.
Mar 27, 2018 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
THREAD: #Russia's Chief of Staff Gen. Gerasimov spoke at closed mil conference outlining #Moscow's vision for contemporaty world geopolitics.Here're key take-aways:
1.#US strive for global leadership leads to "total inter-state rivalry"
2.#US efforts to counter any attempt to challenge unipolar world w any means incl military largely define political situation in the world.It contradicts views of many states, incl #Russia which finds [US] dictation unacceptable & is for just "world order"
Mar 25, 2018 • 10 tweets • 9 min read
UNCONFIRMED reports about #Russia and #US moves in #Syria over 24 hours:
1.Rus media (mostly conservative/"patriotic") report Russia, America have been amassing militaries in & around Syria
2.#Russia delivered additional S400 systems,dozens of Su-30СМ & Su-35 mil aircrafts, ships, submarines, paratroopers, spetsnaz forces
Mar 17, 2018 • 9 tweets • 8 min read
THREAD on #US, #Russia in #Syria:
1.This is getting serious:RUS Chief of Staff says US been preparing sabotage groups at Al Tanf to stage checmical attacks to serve as pretext to attack SYR. According to #Moscow, some of the subversive groups already transferred to #FSA positions
2.MoD claims some chemicals,dozens of detonating fuzes disguised as packs of cigarettes been delivered to town of Dariya. More staged attacks being planned in towns of Al Ghabid, Qalb Loze 25 km NW #Idlib to where 20 containers of chlorines been delivered.
Feb 26, 2018 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
THREAD on #Russia's stance in Eastern #Ghouta:
1.#Putin convened a National Security Council meeting today to discuss the situatiion,;directed all RUS agencies involved in #Syria abide by the 2401 #UNSC Resolution, emphasized "terrorists [in the area] continue their provocations"
2. Despite the UN vote #Moscow stands firm in its position:Western media campaign around East #Ghouta is "crocodile tears","they been silent on militants shelling of #Damascus for 2 years now that #SAA,RU go after militants (yes,not only HTS)everyone suddenly cares for civilians"