Raman Ghavami Profile picture
Jan 23, 2018 22 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A #thread on Turkey’s #Afrin offensive.
This aggression is indirectly connected to #IranProtests because #Russia and Iran are using Turkey for their own interests and Iran in particular wants to silence and weaken its domestic unrest.
Last year when I was in Moscow I told a Syrian Kurdish representative in Moscow that the Kurds must be very careful about Russians as Putin will try to weaken the Kurds in Syria soon. I suggested that she analyses Moscow’s move and report to their HQ in #Rojava.
However, she responded negatively and she accused me of being paranoid. It was then when I wrote this
piece for @myfairobserver and highlighted a few issues including:
How Kurds were used by Russia, Iran and Syria,
How the PKK weakened its position in Turkey
How Washington can turn the table around.
The future of the Kurds in Syria and Turkey is becoming more uncertain.
In October 2017 after IRGC and Hashd-Al-Shaabi took control of Kirkuk(with the help of some PUK leadership who betrayed their people and a green light given by the US to Baghdad) Velayati, the senior advisor to Khamenei, threatened the Kurds in Syria that Iran and
Syria’ll take back territories taken by the Kurds in Syria from ISIS like they did in Iraq. A few days after this announcement the PKK attacked the IRGC base and killed more than 12 of their forces.After this attack Iran got quiet and never talked about attacking Kurds in Syria.
Iran knew if they attack the Kurds the way they did in Iraq then the PKK, which has a strong presence in Iran, would challenge Iran and that could endanger Khamenei’s cult.
Russia was waiting for a moment to move on the Kurds in order to weaken US position.
After announcing the training of a 30000 strong border force, Russia started pumping an idea into Turkey’s mind -as it is very easy to fool Turkey when it comes to Kurdish question- that US wants to establish an independent Kurdistan in Syria.
This aggression on Afrin is not in the interest of Turkey at all because when spring comes the PKK will try to take revenge and there will be some powers who will be willing to help them to weaken Turkey. Many soldiers will die as a result of this and Turkey’s economy won’t be
able to survive in a long run conflict, and Qatar will no longer be able to finance Turkey and other terrorist organisations in the region because of the blockade imposed by Gulf countries.
Lavrov accusing the US of trying to establish an independent Kurdistan in Syria was not
only a lie but the main aim was to fuel the fire and make sure Turkey attacks the Kurds as Russia and Iran were not capable of doing it. Russia and Iran know that because Turkey is a NATO ally, Western hands will be tied and on the other hand Western countries won’t risk their
interest because of Afrin. As we saw in the UNSC meeting today, neither France, UK or US were willing to outright condemn the attack on Afrin.
During Iran protests in Hamedan Iranians chanted “Clerics commit crimes and Russia supports them”. This wasn’t a coincidence because
Russia has a base in Hamedan and the latest Russia-Iran energy agreements are not in the interests of the Iranians but only guarantees a protection of the regime in Iran, especially in the Caspian Sea. That’s why Iranians are not happy with Putin-Khamenei relations.Russia and
Iran understood that they cannot face the Kurds directly. However, they understood that Turkey is the best option theyhave in order to weaken EU&US position in Syria and use Afrin as a counter attack for what has been happening in Iran for the past few weeks. As a result, Kurds
should realise they are being deliberately distracted and PJAK and other opposition parties in Iran should remain focused on countering the terrorist organisation, IRGC, which could change the game and turn the table not only for the Kurds but for all the Iranians who want to see
a weaker Khamenei cult. I have been monitoring different insurgency groups for the past 15 years, in particular the Kurdish ones. It is January and PKK doesn’t have much room to manoeuvre in Turkey and even if they do then their attacks could be countered easily by Turkey.
PKK Guerrillas won’t be able to do much till late March, early April because of the way they are positioned in Turkey. However, in Iran PJAK and other Iranian opposition parties such as KDP, KDPI, Komala etc can challenge Russia’s proxy the IRGC easily.
PJAK locations are not as difficult as the ones in Turkey to move and act from. Although Iraqi Kurds are pretending to be friends with Iran, after what happened in Kirkuk and what is happening in Afrin, the Kurds in Iraq will be willing to counter this offensive at any cost.
For the first time the Kurds in Iraq have understood that with having Erdogan and Khamenei in power, Iraq won’t be able to act independently and that is not in the interest of the KRG. Kurds in Syria have two options in order to save Afrin.
One is to move on extremist groups and FSA from the Eastern side and the second to challenge the IRGC in order to weaken Putin’s elements. More support will be offered to the Kurds to challenge the IRGC as it is a terrorist organisation, but in Syria the help they could receive
would be very limited because of Turkey’s geopolitical importance for the West and NATO in particular. Kurds must make sure that they don’t put themselves in the position which Russia wants.In the past few years we have seen that the IRGC’s offensives successfully
defeated in Urumiyah,Marivan,Sanandaj,Maku,Mahabad,Saqez, Kermanshah, ilam etc so it can be done again.
If the Kurds don’t take smart measures, then they should be ready to give up Afrin-despite the fact they are tough fighters-because the situation is not comparable to Kobane.

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More from @Raman_Ghavami

Sep 30, 2018
A few minutes ago in Kurdish city of Kermashan(Kermanshah) IRGC fired a few missiles to an unknown destination. Two of the missiles crashed near the city a few second after they were fired.
At least 8 missiles were fired.
The missiles were fired from IRGC's base in Kermanshah called Shohada headquarters.
The moment when one of the missile exploded and a few minutes later crashed.
The IRGC has not published any statement.
Read 22 tweets
Sep 29, 2018
Following Iranian media outlets, the @iaeaorg and international community should investigate @netanyahu's claim regarding Iran's secret atomic facility.
It is highly likely that the evidence provided by Netanyahu is reliable. 1/9
This was the video published by an Iranian website. It is interesting why these three men are asking people to not visit the location. In this video they repeatedly ask people to not try to visit the place because there is nothing. But they fail to show inside the building. 2/9
Iranian state TV reporter went to the location. The reporter refused to ask to go inside and show inside the building.
In the report, a man in a red T-shirt[was introduced as an ordinary citizen]makes fun of Netanyahu.Him and another person claim the place is an old depot.3/9
Read 9 tweets
Sep 23, 2018
Who was behind #AhvazAttack?
Another contradictory statement from spokesperson for armed forces:"Attackers didn't have military uniforms on them."But reports&footages published by Iranian media contradict him .
Ahwazi Movement rejects responsibility&claims IRGC was behind it.
IS has published a video claiming its forces've conducted #AhvazAttack.ISIS claims the video was sent to them.Those speaking mention neither ISIS nor Ahvaz.Some claim an Ahwazi group might have cooperated with IS which can't be true cause none of Ahwazi groups focus is religion.
Surprisingly Iranian media publish a photo of the third attacker [who was 'killed' by the Iranian security forces]just hours after ISIS publishes its video. Prior to the video published by Iranians, only photos of two killed attackers had been published by Iranian media.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 22, 2018
Be very careful about what you read about #AhvazAttack.
There are many fake news, unconfirmed reports, fabricated photos and photos taken for propaganda use.
For example @bbcpersian journalist @BahmanKalbasi claims a group has taken responsibility when it is not true.1/8
.@guardian journalist @SaeedKD mislead public opinion by writing 'children' were killed by 'terrorists'. And when you read his piece you only see there was one child and not children. But what the headline of the article suggests is very different to its context.2/8
Director of Iran project at @CrisisGroup, @AliVaez jumps in to protect Iranian regime and asks US officials to condemn the attack. However, he has never asked US officials before to condemn Iranian regime for arresting, raping, torturing and executing political prisoners.3/8
Read 9 tweets
Sep 22, 2018
Patriotic Arab Democratic Movemen in Ahwaz many times warned IRI to stop discrimination,arrests&executions of Ahvazi Arabs. In response to IRI discrimination policies,Arab Struggle Movement attacked IRI forces,killed 9[including a high ranking general]&wounded 40.
The attack on military parade targeted officials and generals who were watching the parade. No civilian casualties and the attack only targeted the location of officials and armed forces. 11 of IRI forces and officials have been killed and 60 wounded.
IRGC's Tasnim published a report&claimed only armed forces were targeted. But the report has been removed.Iranian official media claim civilians were also targeted.However, according to footages&reports only a few families of officials were at the parade.
Read 26 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
Kurdish opposition parties asked Kurds in Iran to go on strike to protest the execution of 6Kurdish political prisoners by the Islamic regime.Kurds responded to their calls,shops are closed&no one has been to work. Security forces threatened people but it didn’t work.
All the Kurdish cities are on strike. To see the unity and how organised the Kurds are is unique. We haven’t seen this anywhere else in Iran. This should be taking Into consideration when it comes to confronting the Iranian regime. A united force is crucial.
Kurds in Iran are on strike in response to brutal and inhuman executions of Kurdish political prisoners. Shops are closed in all Kurdish cities and no one is working which demonstrate the Kurds can be more important and effective in confronting the Iranian regime. This is unique.
Read 6 tweets

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