THREAD
UNCONFIRMED reports about #Russia and #US moves in #Syria over 24 hours:
1.Rus media (mostly conservative/"patriotic") report Russia, America have been amassing militaries in & around Syria
2.#Russia delivered additional S400 systems,dozens of Su-30СМ & Su-35 mil aircrafts, ships, submarines, paratroopers, spetsnaz forces
3.#Russia also increased its naval group up to two dozens warships, including up to six subs-unprecedented concentration of RUS navy on a terrain. Frigates "Admiral Grigorovitch", "Admiral Essen" already entered Mediterranean; so did LLS "Orsk" & "Minsk"; escort «Pytlivyj».
4.#Russia/n reports claim #US & allies building up air forces at #Syria/n borders, including at surrounding airbases & bolsteting navy forces to strike #Syria from Mediterranean, #Turkey, #Jordan, #Cyprus, #Iraq.
5.#Russia/n sources claim #US uses #SkripalCase hype as a cover-up for its military build-up around #Syria to strike #Assad positions.Earlier, RUS MoD warned it would target any US mil that would launch strikes, US seems to have been undeterred by this,sees #Moscow as bluffing
6.#Russia/n LLS allegedly carry Rus special forces. MoD reportedly wants to make it clear a strike on #Syria would be seen as an act of open aggression on Russia & #Moscow's retaliation would inflict serious military & political damage for those launching attack.
7.If the unconfirmed reports prove to be true this is going insane. There's no real interest for #Russia, #US worth slipping into direct war over #Syria. However #Syria has long been not just about Syria but rules of the game on international arena, future world order.
8.P.S.All of this is coincidentally happening while #KSA's MBS is in #US & #Qatar's Al Thani in #Russia meeting w/ #Putin tomorrow.
9. Although the situation doesn't look much promising #Russia has long been bracing up for worst case scenarios, esp in recent weeks given recent position shifts in #US. See my latest @AlMonitor: al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow: 1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
#Lavrov on @realDonaldTrump tweet on #Idlib: #Trump's right-we need to avoid a humanitarian crisis there. That's what we always try to do w/ humanitarian corridors & other coverups for civilians unlike Americans,say,in #Raqqa who just ironed the city. Now they want to cover Nusra
This mistake (or, again, was it intentional #fakenews frill?) set a line of reports that "#Russia reveals..." which is not the case. The info was allegedly LEAKED by two Rus diplomats to @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The proposal on #Donbass appears to have indeed been made by #Putin,the info was not supposed to be disclosed until #Trump discussed it with his team. One may not like the proposal itself, but that it's now disclosed is bad for solution of the issue,courtesy of presidential talks
Antonov adds,another group of #US lawmakers are planning to visit #Russia following a rare trip to #Moscow by Republican members of #Congress this month.The Ambassador noted, however,there was little chance of a trip by Russian lawmakers to #America before congressional elections
Antonov: Politicians in #Washington are very far from the people. What they are doing doesn't meet interests of American people.
3. #Putin & #Trump will be meet face-to-face around noon (1pm #Moscow time). The leaders have at least 3 hours scheduled for themselves after which they will proceed to another room for working lunch in a broader format with ministers and advisers.