KidTempo⭐ Profile picture
Apr 22, 2018 24 tweets 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#ABTVtoStopBrexit isn't about affecting the balance of power or forcing a General Election. #ABTV is about sending a message to the Tories, and *especially* to Labour that people don't support *any* #Brexit. Not a #HardBrexit, #SoftBrexit, #NoDealBrexit, #Lexit, or *any* Brexit.
The Tory's control more than half of councils, nearly double Labour. Losing control of even half of them is unrealistic, and even if it happened under fixed term government I can all but guarantee it won't result in a General Election.
A Prime Minister calls a GE under two circumstances:
1) They are miles ahead in the polls and think they can increase their majority (as in 2017)
2) They have suffered a humiliating defeat or scandal.
Theresa May's primary objective is to, above all, keep the Conservative party together, and in power. Given their disastrous performance in GE2017 when they were miles ahead in the polls, a GE certainly won't be called when they are about level with Labour.
There used to be a time when an embarrassing defeat or scandal would prompt a PM to sack ministers and call a GE to re-establish that they have the support of the public. Those more honourable days are long gone.
Scandal after scandal, #Windrush, #Grenfell, #Boris, #CambridgeAnalytica, #UniversalCredit, the list goes on. Lying and even open defiance of Parliament, which once would bring down a government, are now shrugged off and accepted as the norm.
Keeping good of power at any cost is now the name of the game.

Will losing control of some councils result in a General Election? If you think so then Boris has a bridge he can sell you.
The purpose of #ABTV is not to force a General Election, but to be a grassroots movement to send a message that people are still against *any* form of #Brexit.
In GE2017 Labour was (intentionally) vague about their position on #Brexit. Yes, they respected the result of the referendum. Yes, they would hold the government to account.
Leadership (understandably) wouldn't be drawn on whether this could result in Brexit could be stopped, but assertions to this effect were not contradicted. Remainers were persuaded that their belief that #Brexit be stopped would be respected.
And what happened? After the GE, when the question of what would happen if the Withdrawal Agreement were rejected came up the Labour leadership will not allow the option to Stop Brexit, or even a #FinalSay referendum to be considered - only renegotiation (which is impossible).
The biggest betrayal? Stating that 80% of the electorate voted for parties that support #Brexit. Yes, that includes all the Remainers told that their vote was safe with Labour.
There is a price to pay for betrayal, and it is #ABTV. Many of the people supporting #ABTV really don't want Labour to lose seats or even control of Councils, but they feel they have no choice - it's the only way to pursuade the leadership's to include the option to #StopBrexit
The parties may or may not care about winning or losing the councils themselves, but the fact that UKIP capturing council seats could translate into losing seats in a GE (the Euro-sceptic backbenchers' only ammunition) worried Cameron enough to propose the referendum.
#ABTV serves the same purpose. To let the leadership know that they can't take Remainers votes for granted, that the scaremongering "If you don't vote for us then you're voting for the Tories/Labour" no longer works. That in the next GE, they can't count on our vote.
If the party leadership doesn't like it, then they are welcome to change their position and seriously support a #StopBrexit option - whether in the form of an MP vote and/or #FinalSayForAll #PeoplesVote
Will Theresa May change her position? I think pressure from the ERG Ultra Brexiteers (and the fact that it represents planning for failure) makes that unlikely. Having said that, it does give license to rebelling MPs to justify their votes as addressing the public's concerns.
Will Jeremy Corbyn? I don't know - he obviously doesn't want to, despite the fact that the majority of his MPs and his party are pro-EU. If the argument is that it jeopardises the pro-Brexit voters then... tough.
He has to choose between his Euro-sceptic ideology and the support of Leavers, or his pro-EU MPs and Remainers. He can no longer have his cake and eat it.
The next GE is 4 *years* away. Only the following will prompt an early GE:
- TM getting wind of a coup and calling a GE just to spite her party for stabbing her in the back (unlikely, and *very* unlikely to happen before #Brexit)
- Losing the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement *and* whatever follows that results in #Brexit being cancelled. Just losing the WA is not enough - as long as Brexit remains a possibility, the Tories will not allow a GE.
- A vote of no confidence after March 2019 when Article 50 withdrawal will no longer be an option. I expect at that point passing on the poisoned Brexit chalice will be seen as no bad thing, especially to a party that they can say was complicit in bringing it about.
Fuck all of that. If you want to #StopBrexit then choose an #ABTV for a Pro-Remain independent or party in the local elections next month.

If you want 4 more years of this government, Brexit, nativism and xenophobia, and a ruined economy - vote blindly.
When it all turns to shit, don't go blaming the other side because your side could have done it better. Maybe it could, but it would still be a clusterfuck. There are no winners with #Brexit - as said the Prince: "All are punished"

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More from @KidTempo

Oct 8, 2018
Jet engines are not my area of expertise, but I am an auditor (and not the accounting kind) so let's do this thing.

(Bear in mind that I'm making some generalisations here and I haven't had time to actually do any research so don't take any specifics as gospel)
"Important" industries tend to have one or more international agencies or regulators. For aviation, the ICAO sits at the top with the FAA, the EASA, and probably a whole load of national agencies as the actual regulators.
At the highest level, all regulators generally align their regulations (on procedures, parts, testing, etc.) up to a certain point, at least in so far as to accept each others certification. This allows a EASA-certified plane to fly within the FAA jurisdiction, and vice-versa.
Read 32 tweets
Oct 7, 2018
You're not understanding that this isn't about trade between companies, it's about trade agreements between states. If SK has a default tariff of 30% on aero, but has negotiated a 10% tariff rate for the first £10Bn/yr with the EU - that puts the UK companies at a disadvantage.
An SK company buying the aero parts is going to be choosing between EU parts at a 10% tariff or UK parts at 30%. Which are they going to choose?
Of course, the UK would want to rack up an say they want a trade agreement too. They want, let's say 5% tariffs on aero parts. SK may say they want a reciprocal 5% tariff on mobile phones (it's 10% with the EU, but they have the leverage so they can argue for a better agreement)
Read 22 tweets
Oct 3, 2018
French and Dutch voted ignored? Hardly. Their no votes caused the proposed Constitution to be shelved. Over the next 3 years it was amended to become the Lisbon treaty.
When Ireland voted no on the Lisbon treaty, over 40% of voters stated that not knowing enough about the treaty as the primary reason for their vote, followed by a lack of clarity on certain issues.
The EU gave clarity and legal reassurances on the issues identified (turning some of the more open-ended clauses into more tightly defined ones - kind of like making mini-amendments) to address these concerns and asked them to vote again.
Read 26 tweets
Apr 25, 2018
Well, that's Wales sold down the river.

This BBC article shows the contradictions in the Welsh Assembly's argument (as unclearly as possible, which I can only presume is intentional)…
It says at the same time that devolved powers will be preserved except the role of Brussels being transferred to Westminster (which sounds reasonable), but at the same time that Westminster wants to apply a common UK-wide policies.
"Common UK-wide policies" basically means Westminster will dictate the policies, which contradicts that the devolved powers will be able to control their implementation - unlike now where the EU defines the policy and the devolved assemblies implement them as appropriate.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 16, 2018
I'd rather be on the losing side than the wrong side.
I'd rather be on the side of facts and reason, than impotent feelings of no control and paranoid fantasy.
I'd rather be on the side of cooperation with our neighbors, than competition with a made-up enemy.
I'd rather be on the side of compassion and humanity, than xenophobia and racism.
I'd rather be on the side of unity and solidarity, than nativism, nationalism, and even fucking fascism.
Look at the people who you share your side with, and look at mine.

We may have lost a referendum, but we were not wrong. We are not wrong now, not today, not tomorrow, not in the weeks, months, and years to come. We will not give up and we will be proved right!
Read 6 tweets
Apr 5, 2018
#Remain voted for:

A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.


The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
After #Brexit, the UK will have no influence on EU enlargement. In fact, as setting the EU as a rival, every country that joins the EU will a) strengthen the EU, and b) unravels any trade deals that the UK will have made with that country, isolating it further.
Read 25 tweets

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