Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #bih
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#BiH’s PM Zvizdić hosted by Chancellor Markel in Berlin w the highest diplomatic protocol; Merkel adds “there will be no border changes in the Balkans”. An important signal to Dodik & Vucic. But GER must prepare for more than symbolism in the region. klix.ba/clanak/1808130…
Specifically, Dodik has given ample grounds to every international backer of the Dayton Accords to sanction him (& his party) since the US Treasury Dept did so in 2017. That no other state had done so is telling & only emboldening him.
Also good to see Berlin finally, explicitly mentioning NATO membership as imperative for BiH. If GER & other EU states had pushed harder on this issue, Dodik & the HDZ wouldn’t have the capacity to endanger BiH’s sovereignty as they do at present. ba.n1info.com/a278967/Englis…
Bosnian media claim former FSB director Nikolai Pattushev met w HDZ officials from #Croatia & #Bosnia in Trogir resort to coordinate strategies for interfering in BiH elxns, ensuring @Dragan_Covic’s victory & solidifying RUS influence in both states. zurnal.info/novost/21260/p…
If @zurnal_info has the docs & sources to back this up, it’d be the clearest link yet between the hard-right of the HDZ in #Bosnia & #Croatia & the Kremlin. Their on RUS in BiH reporting so far has been excellent, recall this scoop: theguardian.com/world/2018/feb…
I note also that this story meshes very closely w the approach Russia took in #Montenegro in the 2016 coup attempt, as detailed in this thorough report by @ReufBajrovic, @VeskoGarcevic & R. Kraemer for @FPRI.
This deserves much more attention. #Russia’s attempted 2016 coup in #Montenegro was far more serious & sophisticated than previously understood. @CrisLeeMaza summarizes here the key findings of new report by @ReufBajrovic, @VeskoGarcevic & Richard Kraemer. newsweek.com/exclusive-russ…
Reason why this is such a major story is bc @ReufBajrovic & @suljagicemir1, in this report from March, warn of *upcoming* Russian inference in the Bosnian elxns. BiH is far more vulnerable & volatile than Montenegro was in 2016. Are EU, US, NATO prepared? fpri.org/article/2018/0…
Some of us have been warning about Russia’s very serious meddling in Bosnia for yrs now. I warned explicitly *last Sept* that we were headed for Kremlin-backed trouble in Oct of this yr. Too little has been done by the international community to prepare. foreignaffairs.com/articles/bosni…
Another major arms acquisition by politically controlled police in #Bosnia, months ahead of Oct elxns. HDZ controlled police in the Livno canton (aka Canton 10) appear to have acquired nearly 1000 "automatic rifles". Follows similar moves by Dodik govt. inforadar.ba/inforadar-sazn…
Police in the nearby the Herzegovina-Neretva canton, also controlled by the HDZ, announced in March they were likewise procuring $200,000 of new arms. Weeks later, they caused a near shooting incident w state police. reuters.com/article/us-eur…
So, the HDZ & SNSD have each made major arms acquisitions in last few months, both have direct ties to the Kremlin & both have explicitly threatened violence unless the Oct elxns go their way. Myself & other colleagues have warned of this for months, publicly & privately:
