Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #causalinference
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Interested in thinking more deeply about what a “cause” is? Causation: A Very Short Introduction from @ranilillanjum and @SDMumford is a great starting point.
Thread recap starting now👇🏽#twittereview #epibookclub #causation #causalinference #epimethodsclub
Thread recap starting now👇🏽#twittereview #epibookclub #causation #causalinference #epimethodsclub
Chapter 1 sets up the problem: causation is hard to define, both in general & for specific events. It’s more than just temporal ordering, but is it a separate thing?
An ex., a town gets sick after flood of rats. Did the rats cause sickness? Maybe it was actually a sick visitor.
An ex., a town gets sick after flood of rats. Did the rats cause sickness? Maybe it was actually a sick visitor.
Chapter 2 introduces us to Hume’s theories of causation.
1st, regularity: sometimes things are *regularly* followed by other things.
Is this causation? If so, how regular is regular enough? How many times do we have to observe steam after heating water to say it’s causal?
1st, regularity: sometimes things are *regularly* followed by other things.
Is this causation? If so, how regular is regular enough? How many times do we have to observe steam after heating water to say it’s causal?
Wow, #epibookclub, we’re officially halfway through the #bookofwhy!
Chapter 6 is a doozy... we’re going to learn all about paradoxes!! Get ready to have your mind blown!! 🤯🤯🤯
Chapter 6 is a doozy... we’re going to learn all about paradoxes!! Get ready to have your mind blown!! 🤯🤯🤯
Given last week’s tragic fail on paradox gifs, I made you our very own #epibookclub gif! It’s paradox time!!
(Please be kind this is my very first homemade gif 😂😂)
(Please be kind this is my very first homemade gif 😂😂)
I like the chapter set up this week: @yudapearl explains importance of spending time working out the paradoxes...they can give us insight into how people process causal information. He says these are paradoxes b/c they straddle the rungs of the #ladderofcausation
So, up we go!
So, up we go!
Judea Pearl has a new book (with Dana Mackenzie).
amazon.com/Book-Why-Scien…
To me, Judea is an intellectual hero. My life changed after hearing him at Harvard over 20 years ago. Like many of us in #causalinference, I owe so much to him.
And yet I disagree with him on a key issue.
amazon.com/Book-Why-Scien…
To me, Judea is an intellectual hero. My life changed after hearing him at Harvard over 20 years ago. Like many of us in #causalinference, I owe so much to him.
And yet I disagree with him on a key issue.
Pearl believes that any causal effect we can name must also exist.
To him, the meaning of “the causal effect of A on death” is self-evident. He says we can quantify, say, the causal effect of race or the causal effect of obesity.
I don't think we can.
To him, the meaning of “the causal effect of A on death” is self-evident. He says we can quantify, say, the causal effect of race or the causal effect of obesity.
I don't think we can.
We cannot estimate "the causal effect of obesity" because we don't know what that means.
For the causal effect of A to be well defined, we need a common understanding of the interventions that we would use to change A. Otherwise, the effect is undefined.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
For the causal effect of A to be well defined, we need a common understanding of the interventions that we would use to change A. Otherwise, the effect is undefined.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
