Matt Goodwin Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018 5 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A few reflections on Sweden's exit polls

1. The centre-left Social democrats average 25.8% in exit polls -this would be their lowest vote for more than a century (since 1908). The decline of social democracy in Europe continues

#val2018 #SwedenElection
2. The national populist Sweden Democrats average 17.8% in the exit polls. This would be their best result on record (+4.9 pts on the last election) and is broadly in line with the dip in their support picked up in polls during final week of campaign #val2018
3. It's worth reflecting on fact that national populists look set for a 2nd or 3rd place finish amid an economy that has comparatively decent growth, low unemployment & some of the highest living standards in the Western world #val2018
4. Two 'big' parties averaging 43.6% in exit polls -broadly consistent with polls and my pre-election thread pointing to how the main parties are being squeezed

#val2018 #SwedenElection
5. Compared to last election, & again taking average of exit polls, most but not all of smaller parties -Left Party, Christian Democrats, Centre & liberal- are up a few points. This again points to fragmentation, a story playing out in many other democracies in Europe #val2018

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More from @GoodwinMJ

Oct 6, 2018
Why have Britain's Leavers not changed their minds?

Gee I don't know...

"press freedom has its limits"
An intervention that also happens to come two weeks after this:
Leavers were concerned about a democratic deficit in the EU, driven by a sense that EU institutions were neither sufficiently transparent nor democratically accountable. We've heard a lot about the domestic risk of Brexit but little about how these features remain clearly visible
Read 6 tweets
Sep 25, 2018
Is 'Corbynomics' popular?

A thread

#Lab2018 #Lab18 #LabourConference2018
I get a lot more calls about Corbyn than I do about Brexit

Britain is about to transition from a debate about 'Brexinomics' to a debate about 'Corbynomics'

Lots of people in the City are already having that debate
And usually the same question comes up - what do ordinary people think about Corbyn's policies?
Read 48 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
Few interesting bits on Sweden Democrat support from exit poll data

1) National populists were the most popular party among men
2) Very different story among women - just a 4 pt increase on last election in 2014. Unlike Le Pen in France not much evidence the national populists are closing the well-documented 'gender gap'
3) Compare support for national populist Sweden Democrats among blue-collar workers, 2014 vs 2018
Read 5 tweets
Sep 10, 2018
Agree that some media coverage on Sweden is misleading but I also think these short-term takes & arguments pointing to the "failure" of Sweden Democrats are helpful because they distract us from the long-term currents swirling beneath Europe's democracies. Here's what matters 1/
1. Many of Europe's party systems are fragmenting. I'm stunned that some are arguing Sweden reflects 'success' of the mainstream. Fragmentation means more parties & less coherent coalitions, which makes it more difficult to deliver the strong & stable governments that EU needs
2. There is now a clear rightward drift on cultural-identity issues like immigration, integration & refugees, as studies have now shown. Since the 1980s, party manifestoes on both the centre right & centre left have become less "liberal" and more "authoritarian".
Read 8 tweets
Sep 6, 2018
3 days until Sweden's election

The average across all polls in final week

(change since 2014 election)

Social Democrats 25% (-6)
Sweden Democrats 18% (+5.1)
Moderates 17.5% (-5.8)
Left Party 10% (+4.3)
Centre 9% (+2.9)
Christian Dem 6% (+1.4)
Liberal 6% (+0.6)
Green 5% (-1.9)
The centre-left Social Democrats look set to finish 1st although this could also be the party's lowest share of the vote since 1908, reflecting the general decline of social democracy across Europe
If polls are right -which they generally were in past- then national populist Sweden Democrats will 'fail' to win election. @chrishanretty puts probability of them doing so at 0.1-12.5% & I agree it is unlikely though vote share/policy impact up on past
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
The latest election in Europe:

A thread
On Sunday, Swedes go to the polls in the latest election in Europe. Let's first put the election in wider context
Some pundits & journalists during the 'Macron Spring' in 2017 tried to argue that populism had peaked and that, among others, people like me were wrong. Let's take a look at what's happened since ...
Read 84 tweets

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