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Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
@m_suchkov
Mar 31, 2018 • 6 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
SHORT THREAD: #SkripalCase & #Syria: 1.#Russia's authoritative,yet controversial #MiddleEadt expert Satanovsky known for his ties to #FSB sec service says "#UK's persecution of Russia" has to do w/ serious,underreported development in #Syria that occured shortly before #Salisbury
2.According to him,during operations in #EasternGhouta "actions by #SAA's special force unit (supported by #Russia/ns) led to a group of #UK's special forces ending up trapped in a siege,allegedly near Kafr Batna settlement.
3.The incident occurred few days after another unit of #UK's special forces was captured near Nashabiyah in #EasternGhouta.#London allegedly sought to negotiate their release w/ #Russia via #Oman as a mediator.#Moscow replied it was the jurisdiction of #Syria/n mil authorities.
4.#US Defense Secretary Mattis visit to #Oman on Mar 11. is believed to serve, among other reasons, the purpose of releasing an American officer & two Israelies also allegedly captured in the same episode in #EasternGhouta.
4. It's thus argued #UK as well as some in #US gov (deep state?) realized risks rising in #Syria & since #Russia won't be pushed to the sideline military pressure on other fronts (political, diplomatic, info, sanctions) had to be increased to raise stakes for #Moscow.
5.Satanovsky statements shld always be taken w/ a grain of salt.Yet given his ties to Rus sec services,he occasionally used for "infoleaks" meant to signal certain position within Rus "siloviki" establishment. So even of this isnt entirely accurate it's worth paying attention to

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More from @m_suchkov

Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Sep 12, 2018
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow:
1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Read 10 tweets
Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Sep 7, 2018
My take-away from #TehranSummit this far is #Russia, #Turkey, #Iran each, by & large, can be satisfied w/ its outcomes. #Moscow & #Tehran realized #Erdogan has bigger assets & higher stakes in #Idlib than, say, in southern #Syria where he let #Assad get the opposition, thus..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
Read 4 tweets
Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Sep 4, 2018
#Lavrov now: De-confliction b/n #Russia & #US in #Syria wotking wrll, when there's a need Americans turn to us for explanations of certain things and we do the same
#Lavrov now: When we intervened in #Syria in Sep'15 #ISIS wad at the gates of #Damascus. Not a single power that are today raising voices about humanity, rights, etc moved their finger to prevent #Daesh from almost capturing the city & making it the capital of their caliphate
#Lavrov on @realDonaldTrump tweet on #Idlib: #Trump's right-we need to avoid a humanitarian crisis there. That's what we always try to do w/ humanitarian corridors & other coverups for civilians unlike Americans,say,in #Raqqa who just ironed the city. Now they want to cover Nusra
Read 9 tweets
Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Jul 20, 2018
.@washingtonpost made gross mistake (or #fakenews?) citing Amb Antonov on the referendum issue. At the @ValdaiClub talk WP referring to Antonov said "#Ukrainian issue was discussed”(not "#Donbass referendum" issue), adding"not all details shld be revealed"
wapo.st/2muzQar?tid=ss…
This mistake (or, again, was it intentional #fakenews frill?) set a line of reports that "#Russia reveals..." which is not the case. The info was allegedly LEAKED by two Rus diplomats to @business
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The proposal on #Donbass appears to have indeed been made by #Putin,the info was not supposed to be disclosed until #Trump discussed it with his team. One may not like the proposal itself, but that it's now disclosed is bad for solution of the issue,courtesy of presidential talks
Read 4 tweets
Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Jul 20, 2018
#Russia's Amb. to #US Anatoly Antonov speaking @ValdaiClub says #Moscow is ready to discuss #Putin's visit to #Washington
reut.rs/2NvnRoj
Antonov adds,another group of #US lawmakers are planning to visit #Russia following a rare trip to #Moscow by Republican members of #Congress this month.The Ambassador noted, however,there was little chance of a trip by Russian lawmakers to #America before congressional elections
Antonov: Politicians in #Washington are very far from the people. What they are doing doesn't meet interests of American people.
Read 4 tweets
Maxim A. Suchkov Profile picture
Jul 16, 2018
This is my THREAD on #HelsinkiSummit where I'll report/analyze all coming & subsequent developements from #Russia's POV:
1. Here's my take on #Putin-#Trump encounter for @ispionline where I argue the summit may have high hopes, but modest expectations
ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…
2. This is what #Putin heads into #HelsinkiSummit with in terms of #Syria, #Iran: almon.co/32y5
3. #Putin & #Trump will be meet face-to-face around noon (1pm #Moscow time). The leaders have at least 3 hours scheduled for themselves after which they will proceed to another room for working lunch in a broader format with ministers and advisers.
Read 19 tweets

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