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Arabiana Intel

@ArabianaINTEL

THREAD: #SAA will soon launch #IdlibDawn operation to eliminate militants' presence in #Idlib, #Latakia, #Hama & W #Aleppo CS w/in green area (6,222 km^2).

Map shows vital targets, strategic mountain ranges & locations of #TAF/ #TSK military “observation” posts. #Syria 1️⃣

2️⃣ During FIRST stages of #IdlibDawn OP, #SAA will probably focus on 3 main axes:

1st: NW/W #Aleppo CS
2nd: N #Hama CS
3rd: NE #Latakia CS

#TAF presence will be seriously taken into account (as long as its existence); expecting certain pressure/isolation of #TSK posts.

3️⃣ FIRST AXIS; NW/W #Aleppo CS

Possible #SAA movements to secure #Anadan Plain & W Aleppo suburbs, forcing militants (#NLF) retreat towards Jabal Sem’an.

PS: The #TAF/ #TSK’s “Anadan” post is hereby bypassed from eastern axes. #Syria #IdlibDawn

Read 6 tweets

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."

#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?

For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.

Read 26 tweets

Qalaat Al Mudiq

@QalaatAlMudiq

#Afrin Offensive about to oppose:
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)

#Afrin Offensive: following weeks of #TSK reinforcements near border with #Syria but also in Syria itself (N. #Aleppo & N. #Idlib), #FSA-led National Army started also to mobilize. Multiple convoys moving.

#Pt. National Army (incl. #FSA 23rd Division) preparing for #Afrin Offensive (#AfrinOp) near border with #Turkey.

Read 243 tweets

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