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Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?
For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.
Read 26 tweets
It’s extraordinary just how much BS gets created in people’s minds.

I never once expressed “support” for #Turkey’s #Afrin operation.

- Did I say it was inevitable? Yes.
- Did I observe it & comment on its advance vis-a-vis broader #Syria dynamics (i.e. my job)? Yes.
My critique has always been about the imbalance/s created in northern #Syria by U.S. counter-#ISIS policy.

The #YPG was/is the #PKK - all U.S. officials admit that in private. That didn’t necessarily have to preclude working with them, but ignoring it caused big, big problems.
#pt: As an analyst of terrorist groups, I did see a certain irony & short-sightedness in the words of one top, serving U.S. official, “allying with a terrorist group (#PKK) to fight another terrorist group (#ISIS).”

It’s got nothing to do with any position on #Kurds, whatsoever.
Read 7 tweets
The logic driving this “humanitarian” narrative is riddled with inaccuracies & contradiction.

1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]

Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”

Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
Read 7 tweets
#SRO | HISTORY | MAP - Here is a map (the only one on the web) based on documented places and elements showing #Aleppo and its countryside in August 22, 2012 [One month after start of Maarakat al-Furqan in July 21, 2012] | #Syria.
CHRONOLOGY :
- Azaz is secured by rebellion in July 19, 2012
- Silent cells taking over Salah ad-Din in #Aleppo city in July 20, 2012
- Anadan secured in July 29, 2012
- Al-Bab and Tadef secured in July 29, 2012
- Most of E-#Aleppo under rebellion in August 6, 2012
CHRONOLOGY AROUND #ALEPPO :
- Taanah battalion under rebels in September 2012.
- Military academy is taken by Liwa al-Tawhid in December 2012.
- Battalion 135 is falling in January 2013.
- Police academy is falling in March 2013.
- Kindi and Prison besieged since April 29, 2013.
Read 5 tweets
1.@Evan_McMullin. #Pompeo discussed terrorism w/SVR GRU & FSB? Trump betrayed US #Kurdish allies #SDF for Putin & Assad. My CIA FOIA. We betrayed folks who defeated #ISIS & allows #Erdogan to slaughter #Afrin #Kurds. So far. #SDF @FoxNews @francesmartel @OIRSpox @FBIHonolulu @CIA
2. To explain, the Wayback captured the @CIA page about #Syria where there were no domestic terrorist listed on January 28, 2018. Ex A. I concede that a story I read yesterday, that I will search for to give accreditation, found this. As you can see, Ex B shows added PYD entry.
3. Here's Thurs DOD presser. At 3:34 and later 6:31 discussions of Afrin. At 27:42 AA reported says rockets fired in then the general says "if the PKK attacks Turkey." There are no PKK in Turkey. He must know that. We need to say if PYD, SDF YPG and/or YPG are or aren't listed.
Read 7 tweets

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