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Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."

#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?

For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.

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Qalaat Al Mudiq

@QalaatAlMudiq

#Afrin Offensive about to oppose:
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)

#Afrin Offensive: following weeks of #TSK reinforcements near border with #Syria but also in Syria itself (N. #Aleppo & N. #Idlib), #FSA-led National Army started also to mobilize. Multiple convoys moving.

#Pt. National Army (incl. #FSA 23rd Division) preparing for #Afrin Offensive (#AfrinOp) near border with #Turkey.

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