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Always great to be on @cnni with @rosemaryCNN Church.
Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.
It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?
Thread Upsum
#IRGC and #Hezbollah have trained hundreds of #SDF fighters who will be joining the #SAA offensive on the W. #Aleppo - #Saraqeb Axis. The deal was forged in August and immediately put to work.
#IRGC and #Hezbollah have trained hundreds of #SDF fighters who will be joining the #SAA offensive on the W. #Aleppo - #Saraqeb Axis. The deal was forged in August and immediately put to work.
Fascinating work by @HaidHaid22 - looking at initiatives (or a lack, thereof) by the #SDF & the #FSA to reconcile/rehabilitate/reintegrate #ISIS detainees in northern #Syria.
Really important backgrounder:
icsr.info/2018/08/20/rei…
Really important backgrounder:
icsr.info/2018/08/20/rei…
@HaidHaid22 #pt: According to @HaidHaid22’s work for @ICSR_Centre, one’s decision to join #ISIS in #Syria was driven primarily by x4 factors:
1. Financial benefits
2. Protection
3. Military capacity
4. Ideology
Less than 20% of recruits joined for ideological reasons.
1. Financial benefits
2. Protection
3. Military capacity
4. Ideology
Less than 20% of recruits joined for ideological reasons.
@HaidHaid22 @ICSR_Centre #pt: @HaidHaid22 raises a number of important questions for @CJTFOIR & its #SDF partner:
- Surging strains on the #SDF's makeshift prison network holding 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners, raises risks of eventual #ISIS attacks, aimed at replicating #Iraq’s 2012-3 “Breaking the Walls.”
- Surging strains on the #SDF's makeshift prison network holding 1,000s of #ISIS prisoners, raises risks of eventual #ISIS attacks, aimed at replicating #Iraq’s 2012-3 “Breaking the Walls.”
Preparations appear to be underway for a pro-#Assad offensive on #Idlib.
12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).
+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).
+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
@ETANA_Syria #pt: If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the #Assad regime (+ #Russia & #Iran-backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts:
1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour)
2) N. #Hama/#SE #Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)
-> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.
1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour)
2) N. #Hama/#SE #Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)
-> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.
@ETANA_Syria Very good by @theIRC’s @DMiliband:
- The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW #Syria & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into #Turkey.
- UNSC must demand full access to S #Syria; for aid, monitoring etc.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-w…
- The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW #Syria & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into #Turkey.
- UNSC must demand full access to S #Syria; for aid, monitoring etc.
washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-w…
Our partner force in #Syria, the #SDF/#PKK is further formalizing its close relationship with the #Asad/#Iran system and mulling joint offensive operations against a #NATO member. So that's all going well. reut.rs/2LD074A
1. Ibraheem Musaibli and Samantha Elhassani will be charged with aiding ISIS. They were transferred from the custody of SDF to US Law Enforcement.
#SDF #ISIS
justice.gov/usao-ndin/pr/p…
#SDF #ISIS
justice.gov/usao-ndin/pr/p…
Michael Dempsey argues that after the pro-Asad forces roll over Deraa, Idlib is next, and then comes the east, against the U.S. partner, the #SDF/#PKK, unless the U.S. does some creative thinking and stays invested. <Some comments below> warontherocks.com/2018/07/what-d…
I am not sure that #Turkey will stand aside in Idlib. Dempsey is right that the Turks' presence is "limited" but as a military-political matter (calling it a "red line", coping with an influx of 2m refugees plus terrorists, space it gives to PKK) Ankara needs to hold its ground.
On the Asad Alliance side, yes, if Asad/Iran decide to attack #Idlib, Russia can do nothing and will join in. Even so, assuming Turkey does not fold, it's not clear the regime coalition has the capacity for this offensive. Perhaps it does, but that shouldn't be an assumption.
Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”
Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
A group calling itself "The Committee of Peaceful movement in #Raqqa" called for a peaceful uprising against the Kurdish-led #SDF. The statement demanded the Syrian Democratic Forces to leave the city and hand it over to its people.
It’s extraordinary just how much BS gets created in people’s minds.
I never once expressed “support” for #Turkey’s #Afrin operation.
- Did I say it was inevitable? Yes.
- Did I observe it & comment on its advance vis-a-vis broader #Syria dynamics (i.e. my job)? Yes.
I never once expressed “support” for #Turkey’s #Afrin operation.
- Did I say it was inevitable? Yes.
- Did I observe it & comment on its advance vis-a-vis broader #Syria dynamics (i.e. my job)? Yes.
Interesting [alleged] details on possible US-#Turkey roadmap on #Manbij, #Syria - from @ragipsoylu.
#PKK “advisors” to leave… followed later by #YPG… TSK to control 5/11 observation posts & train new local security force to replace #SDF in ~6 months.
#PKK “advisors” to leave… followed later by #YPG… TSK to control 5/11 observation posts & train new local security force to replace #SDF in ~6 months.
@ragipsoylu Unsurprisingly, the #PKK-controlled, #YPG/#SDF-run #Manbij Military Council (MMC) has refused any TSK presence.
Seems U.S. did not pre-consult with MMC - why? Would seem the logical thing to work out internal issues first…
Does someone want spoilers?
reuters.com/article/us-mid…
Seems U.S. did not pre-consult with MMC - why? Would seem the logical thing to work out internal issues first…
Does someone want spoilers?
reuters.com/article/us-mid…
@ragipsoylu The #YPG/#SDF’s political “co-chair,” Ilham Ahmed (a #PKK veteran) has reportedly arrived in #Damascus for talks with the #Assad regime.
Ilham Ahmed is a regular visitor to Washington DC - a close partner to the U.S/@CJTFOIR/@StateDept.
Ilham Ahmed is a regular visitor to Washington DC - a close partner to the U.S/@CJTFOIR/@StateDept.
#Assad: we didn't send people to #Idlib, they wanted to go to Idlib because all these groups have the same incubator and ideas. (around min 5) rt.com/news/428299-as…
@LizSly does not accurately state what Assad said. Readers must be careful to note that Assad never said America "will be expelled by force". These are the words of Liz and not Assad (hence they don't have quotation marks). The use of force wording was directed at #SDF ==> More=>
2-Assad: If the first option of negotiations with #SDF does not work, "we are going to resort to liberating those areas by force. With Americans or without Americans, We don't have any other option. This is our land. It is our right. it is out duty to liberate" ==>
3-Assad: “The Americans should leave, somehow they're going to leave. They came to Iraq with no legal basis, and look what happened to them. They have to learn the lesson. Iraq is no exception, and Syria is no exception. People will not accept foreigners in this region anymore”=>
⚡️⚡️⚡️#SDF reported to prepare for redeploying their forces from mostly Arabian cities of #Manbij, #Raqqa and #Tabqa. The decision was taken 4 day ago in talks with Gulf representatives in Ain Issa. The Saudi and Emirates occupation of #Syria's East will replace the #US one
#Saudi military advisors hold talks with #Kurdish representatives in #Kobani (Ayn al Arab)
wp.me/p7TRRn-6HW
wp.me/p7TRRn-6HW
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
The logic driving this “humanitarian” narrative is riddled with inaccuracies & contradiction.
1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]
Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”
Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
#Iran / #Syria Thread: Key to understanding this topic is to appreciate how perceptions matter just as much reality. Similarly, the political angle of this topic also matters just as much, if not more, than the empirical & Intel-based facts related to this subject matter =>
2-As early as Dec 2016, some of us warned here (see thread below) that @realDonaldTrump Admin was likely to take an anti-Iran tilt & make it a pillar of its regional strategy. The Admin was also expected to be more Pro-Israel than its predecessors. Both turned out to be right =>
3-In order to understand what the U.S. is currently doing in #Syria , one needs to understand what the U.S. couldn't possibly do politically once the mission of ISIS's "annihilation" was complete. So, why didn't @realDonaldTrump do his own "mission accomplished" and leave? =>
#SRO| IMPORTANT - #US seems to consider that Euphrates limit agreement (between #SDF and regime) must be applied completely : under aircover, #Deir_Ezzor military council took over Tabiyah from regime. First time #USAF giving air support for an offensive against regime (1).
#SRO | IMPORTANT - By taking over Tabiyah, #SDF now only 15 km east to #DeZ gates. #Deir_Ezzor military council always considered all areas north and east to Deir Ezzor are parts of their own legitimacy to govern. But very strange move as #US giving them support for these claims.
#SRO| IMPORTANT - Main problem is that #Deir_Ezzor Military Council (#SDF backed and linked) also consider... #Deir_Ezzor city as part of their areas to govern... But #US will never accept a complete war about Deir Ezzor. They want to show they can help but not so much...
#SRO - What happened in Kusham area is the first real and strong #US action to protect its interests, the #SDF and its military advisors... Be sure this will reinforce #SDF recuitment policy and popularity... (1)
#SRO - #YPG and #YPJ are showing impressive resistance at #Afrin borders. Pro-#Turkey activists recognizing it. Note Jaysh al-Thuwar and #SDF #FSAare still stationned at #Tal_Rifaat and Shahbah frontlines, so, not involved (1).
1.@Evan_McMullin. #Pompeo discussed terrorism w/SVR GRU & FSB? Trump betrayed US #Kurdish allies #SDF for Putin & Assad. My CIA FOIA. We betrayed folks who defeated #ISIS & allows #Erdogan to slaughter #Afrin #Kurds. So far. #SDF @FoxNews @francesmartel @OIRSpox @FBIHonolulu @CIA 
2. To explain, the Wayback captured the @CIA page about #Syria where there were no domestic terrorist listed on January 28, 2018. Ex A. I concede that a story I read yesterday, that I will search for to give accreditation, found this. As you can see, Ex B shows added PYD entry.
3. Here's Thurs DOD presser. At 3:34 and later 6:31 discussions of Afrin. At 27:42 AA reported says rockets fired in then the general says "if the PKK attacks Turkey." There are no PKK in Turkey. He must know that. We need to say if PYD, SDF YPG and/or YPG are or aren't listed.
The #SDF had denied Turkish reports that the border town of #Reyhanlı was shelled by #YPG, stating two days ago: "We have nothing to do in shelling [of Reyhanlı] civilian settlements. We never target the territory outside of our borders." 
1. Afrin Syria Saturday am 20 Jan. I can't confirm this report but it would not surprise me. I've followed the #YPG & #YPJ since Fall 2014. I note equipment changes Kept count of force size. Posted dozens of clips of every @CJTFOIR presser on my YouTube channel. Afrin
2. Afrin was always a black box. I saw what appeared to be US small arms with Afrin YPG in contrast to the SDF forces in the rest of Syria. Possible they were beneficiaries of CIA Train & Equip debacle. Won't report estimates of force size but by 2016 it was already large.
#Afrin Offensive about to oppose:
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)
- Turkish Army (#TSK) & National Army (ex-#EuphratesShield, mainly #FSA)
- People/Women's Protection Units (#YPG/J) + allies & #Syria|n Democratic Forces (#SDF)
