Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Erdoğan

Most recents (24)

In order to understand the #Idlib “de-escalation agreement”, one must understand the nature of relationship between #Putin & #Erdogan. Best to think of both leaders as being engaged right now. Not yet in a full marriage but neither is ready to walk away from each other just yet=>
2-Engagements don’t last forever. They either end in marriage or in walking away for good. This engagement phase will be tested over the coming months as Erdogan is expected to deliver on promises he made to his partner.
3-Naturally, Syrian Leadership is watching this engagement phase very closely. The base case scenario in Damascus appears to expect Erdogan to experience significant challenges in delivering on the promises he made to his partner. The coming few months will prove to be decisive
Read 3 tweets
Short THREAD on #Russia - #Turkey divergences over #Idlib as seen from #Moscow:
1. In early August I described rationale behind RU positon & that "certain level of understanding reached w/ TUR that there should be no [large-scale] offensive on Idlib [then]"almon.co/338t
2.I recently reached out to the same senior RUS diplomat who reiterated #Moscow's bottom-line desire to settle the issue peacefully except for terrorists organization who he argued #Turkey too agreed to fight as part of AStana agreements.Yesterday,RU #Syria envoy Lavrentyev..
3. .alluded to #Russia's growing displease w/ #Ankara's inability to deliver upon its committments in the area that, as Lavrentyev said"is kind of their zone of responsibility."Instead,#Erdogan writing op-eds,trying to enlist support from #West/ern partners over #Idlib which is..
Read 10 tweets
Erdogan in an op-ed in @WSJ :

“Moderate rebels played a key role in Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern #Syria; their assistance and guidance will be crucial in Idlib as well”
2-Erdogan: “Preventing the assault on #Idlib need not set back counter-terrorism efforts. Turkey has succeeded in fighting terrorist groups, including ISIS and the PKK, without harming or displacing civilians”

Notice how he doesn’t include Nusra /al-Qaeda in above group
3- Erdogan: “Turkey’s ability to maintain order in Northern #Syria is proof that a responsible approach to counter-terrorism can win hearts and minds”
Read 7 tweets
My take-away from #TehranSummit this far is #Russia, #Turkey, #Iran each, by & large, can be satisfied w/ its outcomes. #Moscow & #Tehran realized #Erdogan has bigger assets & higher stakes in #Idlib than, say, in southern #Syria where he let #Assad get the opposition, thus..
..the idea for the summit was to get a deal where all the 3 can secure their bottom-line interests.They didn't fully achieve it since there will be another round of trilateral talks (some time in the future in #Russia) and the parties hope to settle #Idlib issue in #Tehran but..
..(a) #Turkey maintained credibility of the oppoaition (by that good cop-bad cop thing #Erdogan & #Putun played), (b) #Russia got his promise to deal w/ those attacking #Hmeymim (c) #Ankara received time to settle the major task of assorting militants (d)..
Read 4 tweets
IMPORTANTE

La #Turchia bombarda #Sinjar ed uccide Mam Zaki, uno degli eroi che salvò decine di migliaia di #ezidi dal genocidio dell'#ISIS.

#thread
1) Una notizia terribile, l'ennesimo crimine atroce e disumano della #Turchia contro il popolo curdo.
Ieri intorno alle 16 un raid turco ha colpito alcuni veicoli (pare 3) delle forze di autodifesa ezide #YBS che stavano tornando dalla commemorazione del massacro di #Kocho.
2) Tra il 3 ed il 15 Agosto 2014 il villaggio di #Kocho nei pressi di #Sinjar rimane sotto assedio da parte dell'ISIS.
Tra il 15 Agosto e le prime ore del 16 Agosto i miliziani dell'#ISIS entrarono nel villaggio. Radunarono tutta la popolazione, circa 1700 persone, nella scuola.
Read 24 tweets
🤔VenezuelaAndTeamTrump🤔

#TeamPutinTrumpChina’s love/hate obsession with Venezuela. Hint: oil, 💰 & so much more.

#VenezuelaTrump

📌RU & China launch Gold/Yuan based New Oil Desk.
💰The VZ Players💰

Putin, Xi, Trump, Cons Think Tanks, Citgo Oil, PDVSA, Trump Inauguration, Thomas Barrack, Gates, DonJr pals Gentry Beach, Wadie Habboush, Flynn, Bannon, Pence, Lewandowski. BitCoin, Sanctions, business opportunities, refugees, drones & pirates, oh my!
Venezuela has rich resources of gold, nickel, iron ore, steel, diamond, alumina, coal, bauxite, asphalt, natural gas, and petroleum.
azomining.com/Article.aspx?A…
Read 60 tweets
Will Turkey Drop the US Dollar? @FortRussNews fort-russ.com/2018/08/will-t…
Can anyone tell me what exactly #Turkey has gained from its war against #Syria besides a collapsing currency, millions of refugees, an increase in terrorist attacks, the establishment of the #YPG and sanctions?
“Erdogan's speech is not helping the [Turkish] lira.” - @adamsamson
Read 10 tweets
Preparations appear to be underway for a pro-#Assad offensive on #Idlib.

12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).

+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
@ETANA_Syria #pt: If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the #Assad regime (+ #Russia & #Iran-backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts:

1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour)
2) N. #Hama/#SE #Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)

-> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.
@ETANA_Syria Very good by @theIRC’s @DMiliband:

- The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW #Syria & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into #Turkey.

- UNSC must demand full access to S #Syria; for aid, monitoring etc.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-w…
Read 83 tweets
😎😁😂🤣 #Turkey
🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂 #Turkey
Read 5 tweets
#Turkey cancelled passports of hundreds of thousands of #Turkish nationals mainly #journalists, teachers, #judges, and academics.
As #Erdogan sent a flood of requests to #InterPol, Interpol not only removed the cases from its database but also suspended the authorization of the #Turkish Interpol section to enter new filings in the system. 😂
Read 5 tweets
Holy COW !!
The people of #Turkey need to take action NOW or else this madman #Erdogan will take them to Stone Age era in weeks !
“If they have dollars, we have our Allah,” says #Erdogan to the economic meltdown in #Turkey and the record devaluation of the #Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.
@aykan_erdemir
The #TurkishLira has weakened to a record low. Here's what #Turkey's president might say in a speech later today. @markets
Read 5 tweets
☘️MondayMadness☘️

Trump nominates Brett Kavanaugh, U.S. CC Judge of the U.S. Ct of App for the D of C , to replace Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy on the #SCOTUS

Ex-WH ethics chief Norm Eisen files complaint demanding probe into Jim Jordan sex abuse coverup claims
☘️MondayMadness2☘️

A federal judge has ordered Michael Flynn and Robert Mueller’s team to appear in court on Tuesday for a hearing

The Secretive Puppetmaster Behind Trump’s Supreme Court Pick

Ivanka Trump's Chinese-Made Products Conveniently Spared From Dad's Tariffs
☘️MondayMadness3☘️

Trade Wars Risk Sparking Mass Currency Devaluations

Pyongyang is now emphasizing that the Summit accord is just the start of talks, not a promise to unilaterally disarm as 45 falsely claimed.

James Packer resigns from Consolidated Press Holdings board
Read 57 tweets
Today,Sadly @Twitter suspended my account after members of cult-like #MEK terror Org reported me because I had criticized violation of Women's Rights in #MEK's camp in #Albania. They also threatened me to death this afternoon. #MEK & #Iran's Islamic Regime are two sides of a coin
#MEK's political wing, #NCRI which is falsely claiming to be secular is forcing its female soldiers to wear Hijab even during their rally in #Paris on 30/06/2018. Speaking about #MEK's violation of women's rights make its leaders angry. This is why #MEK is unpopular in #Iran.
#MEK is being financially supported by #KSA in-order to start a civil war in #Iran similar to what is happening in #Syria now. But hopefully can't because official surveys held by Iranian opposition groups show the group is 2nd most hated Org. after the Islamic Regime in #Iran.
Read 9 tweets
Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?
For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.
Read 26 tweets
Let me open up a rather esoteric debate over #Erdogan’s discourse that “we are one nation who can’t read the tombstones of their grandparents.” He’s not wrong, and all goes back to #MustafaKemalAtaturk changing the alphabet overnight in 1920s. It was all about strategy +
+ First, background: there is a reason why most Westerners can’t pronounce (or consistently mispronounce) Turkish names. We use Latin alphabet like Westerners, but in our own way (plus extra letters). It wasn’t always the case, until 1920s, Ottomans/Turks uses Arabic alphabet +
+ Fun fact #1: When Asians/Arabs/anyone who uses a non-Latin alphabet write their names in English, they automatically translate their names from their alphabet to Latin alphabet. For example, محمد becomes Muhammad, Mohammed, or a version of it. Turks don’t transliterate +
Read 9 tweets
What are #Erdogan’s strategic choices, if loses elections (which he won’t unless opposition includes #HDP support):
1) Resign peacefully & wait for opposition to implode (it certainly will)
2) Declare “national [milli] democracy” to stay indefinitely, citing external enemies +
+ If #Erdogan loses and chooses to resign peacefully, he’ll be at an advantage in the long run. Opposition seems united at the moment (a generous assessment), but coalition members will lose their heads if they win & turn against each other instantly. So... +
+ So, even if Erdogan loses, coalition members won’t be able to keep it together, simply because they come from very different positions, & given nuances of the election system, each will claim victory belongs to them. PLUS: economy is tanking, they’ll have to deal with the mess+
Read 11 tweets
BREAKING: The White House has said that US President #Trump is canceling his upcoming South America trip to remain in the US "to oversee the American response to Syria." - @NBCNews
This sounds like the US is planning to strike #Syria and Trump will remain in the US to closely monitor responses by #Russia. This is terrible.
BREAKING - British forces are now mobilizing at their bases in #Cyprus for strikes against #Syria. It appears very likely that the US, France and U.K. will strike Syria in the next 24 hours. This is dreadful.
Read 182 tweets
.@realDonaldTrump must consider how to respond to the latest chemical weapons attack in #Syria

It must be devastating as both #Assad and #Putin have now acted as if US warnings mean nothing

theatlantic.com/international/…
The meeting in Turkey between #Putin, #Erdogan & #Rouhani was a bad thing

They were planning how to carve up #Syria among other things
I think they read too much into the #Trump statement about leaving Syria

He didn't say "So do whatever you want"
In fact if they wanted to make sure we wouldn't leave soon
Or leave the field to them
A chemical attack was about the best way to do that

It seems way too much like a test of @realDonaldTrump & @AmbJohnBolton
That's unwise
Read 6 tweets
Chaos gives a dictatorship the chance to rise - #PutinCon
: "It's not Putin who is so strong, but we are too weak." About our willingness to ignore, tolerate or embrace Putin's aggressive agenda. #PutinCon
“‘Schröder’ is actually Russian for ‘the corruption of political elite in another country.’ ... And @DanaRohrabacher is a mini-Schröder.” -@reitschuster #PutinCon
Read 17 tweets
What are strategic options for the US in Syria over Turkey-#YPG debacle? Only four, none perfect:
1) Strategic procrastination
2) Prefer Turkey over #YPG
3) Prefer YPG over Turkey
4) Play an active role in reconciling Turkey and YPG/#PKK

#thread +
+ First option is strategic procrastination: trying to put a bandaid on big problems with / between Turkey & YPG, hoping things will eventually work themselves out. They won’t, they’ll only get worse, & US will eventually be blamed by *both* Turkey & YPG +
+Strategic procrastination also includes “piecemeal concessions” to both Turkey and YPG to temporarily calm them down. This won’t work. Divide & conflict between TR & YPG is real, and deepening every day. No “smart, cheap, fast” solutions here. Big problem requires big solution +
Read 25 tweets
The logic driving this “humanitarian” narrative is riddled with inaccuracies & contradiction.

1. @MaxBoot says we should “let #Assad win,” but that at the same time, the U.S. should “stand with” the #SDF in 25% of #Syria (the northeast) -- how does that work, exactly?
2. The author also says U.S should “cut a deal” w. #Erdogan, in which “the #YPG will sever all support for the #PKK” … [despite the vast majority of #PYD/YPG leadership being long-time PKK/KCK veterans.]

Speak to anyone who regularly visits #SDF in NE - PKK calls the shots.
3. The author also links recent pictures of #Aleppo’s public park to compare “2016 charnel house” to 2018 "civilians strolling through its rebuilt public park.”

Except the park sat in regime-held territory & was barely touched in 4yrs of war. How does conquered east Aleppo look?
Read 7 tweets
ATTENZIONE
C'è il forte sospetto che la #Turchia abbia utilizzato gas chimici contro la popolazione di #Afrin, in particolare cloro.
#Thread

#DefendAfrin
#AfrinUnderAttack
Ieri sera intorno alle 22 sei civili provenienti dal villaggio di Erende sono arrivati all'ospedale di #Afrin lamentando grossi problemi di respirazioni. I dottori hanno constatato gli effetti del gas cloro.
Il cloro è un gas soffocante diffuso liberandolo da apposite bombole, che provoca una tosse spasmodica con gravi lesioni polmonari che spesso portano alla morte per asfissia.
#Afrin #Erdogan #Turchia
Read 6 tweets
1.@Evan_McMullin. #Pompeo discussed terrorism w/SVR GRU & FSB? Trump betrayed US #Kurdish allies #SDF for Putin & Assad. My CIA FOIA. We betrayed folks who defeated #ISIS & allows #Erdogan to slaughter #Afrin #Kurds. So far. #SDF @FoxNews @francesmartel @OIRSpox @FBIHonolulu @CIA
2. To explain, the Wayback captured the @CIA page about #Syria where there were no domestic terrorist listed on January 28, 2018. Ex A. I concede that a story I read yesterday, that I will search for to give accreditation, found this. As you can see, Ex B shows added PYD entry.
3. Here's Thurs DOD presser. At 3:34 and later 6:31 discussions of Afrin. At 27:42 AA reported says rockets fired in then the general says "if the PKK attacks Turkey." There are no PKK in Turkey. He must know that. We need to say if PYD, SDF YPG and/or YPG are or aren't listed.
Read 7 tweets

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